Veteran Trader Believes Bitcoin Has a Chance of Going to Zero

In 2018, Peter Brandt claimed that Bitcoin had a 50% chance of going to $250,000 or more, and another 50% of going to zero. On Sunday, the veteran trader confirmed his prediction, calling the investment a “very asymmetrical” risk-reward.

Although comments to his post were disabled by Brandt, some followers used the retweet function to express their views.

One of them stated that this is the “stupidest analysis” you’ve ever seen. Another, who doesn’t understand anything, asks if this “word salad must mean something”. Regardless, Brandt is one of the most respected traders in the world.

Bitcoin could go to zero, says Peter Brandt

Still regarded by many as a risky asset, either because of its volatility or because of its 13-year market – short time compared to metals – Bitcoin’s future is still an unknown.

Using technical analysis, Peter Brandt emphasizes that Bitcoin still has a 50% chance of going to zero. In any case, according to the trader who has been trading futures since 1975, the risk-return of this investment is asymmetric, that is, far from 50 – 50.

“Since 2018, I have stated without apology that Bitcoin has a 50% chance of going to $100,000/250,000/or higher and a 50% chance of going to zero. I still believe that, but it does mean that BTC represents a very asymmetric risk-reward trade.”

Dating from 2018, I stated without apology that Bitcoin $BTC has a 50% chance of going to $100,000/$250,000/whatever and a 50% chance of going to $Zero. I still believe this, but it means that #BTC represent a highly asymmetric reward-to-risk trade pic.twitter.com/Iop7HIMkE3

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLbrandt) October 2, 2022

In the past, Brandt stated that Bitcoin was “a hedge against all dollar-denominated investments” and called it one of his largest holdings. Since then, however, the market seems to have changed, with Bitcoin following the stock price closely, especially in the tech sector.

All or nothing in Bitcoin

While the veteran trader assumed Bitcoin could multiply its value by more than 10 times, some of his followers disagreed with his analysis.

According to some, Bitcoin has changed a lot in the last four years, mainly due to the increase in volume and the arrival of new major players. Therefore, they believe that BTC has far from a 50% chance of going to zero. That is, with each passing day, this probability decreases significantly.

“50 percent chance you’re a crackhead,” noted an aggressive user by the name of BATMAN.

Ultimately, that will never happen if it depends on a few investors like Changpeng Zhao. According to the Binance founder, he will continue to buy BTC until his money runs out.

“Still worried about btc going to 0? No! As long as I have a penny left, that won’t happen.”

Still worried about #btc go to 0?

do not! As long as I have a penny left, it won’t happen.

— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) March 17, 2020