SEC Postpones Decision on ETFs and Bitcoin Lists Weekly Gains

The SEC, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, had to respond to seven Bitcoin ETF requests pending, one this Friday (1st), five this Saturday (2nd), and another on Monday (4th). The SEC ruled in advance Thursday (31) and deferred its decision to a later date.

As a result, Bitcoin rebounded to $26,000. The 5% drop reversed Bitcoin’s weekly gains with Grayscale’s victory over the SEC in court, leaving everything at ‘zero-for-zero’.

Either way, Bloomberg analysts still believe there’s a 75% chance the Commission will approve one or more ETFs this year. For 2024, they estimate their probability at 95%.

SEC Postpones Decision on Seven Bitcoin ETF Applications

In short, the SEC has four deadlines to respond to ETF requests, and can make a decision ahead of them or simply postpone the decision until the last minute, as it has done in the past.

It is therefore no surprise that the Commission’s position. In early August, the SEC had done the same with the request for Ark Invest & 21 Shares, the only thing further advanced among the outstanding shares.

Yet this Thursday (31), Bitcoin suffered a 5% drop, dropping it rapidly from $27,000 to $26,000 and returning the gains from Grayscale’s win.

According to a calendar produced by Bloomberg analysts, the orders are from the giants BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, Wisdowmtree, VanEck, Invesco & Galaxy and Valkyrie were played for the so-called “second term”. Therefore, the SEC has until 19 next month (October) to give them a new answer.

As for the “deadline”, the most important of all: the first is set for that day January 10, 2024, related to Ark’s request. All others are marked for mid-March 2024as shown in the image below, but nothing prevents the Commission from approving ETFs earlier.

SEC postpones decision on ETF applications, next deadline is mid-October.  Source: Bloomberg/Reproduction.
SEC postpones decision on ETF applications, next deadline is mid-October. Source: Bloomberg/Reproduction.

Finally, while Ark’s request is at the forefront, as it was filed two months before the others, the market still has its eyes on BlackRock’s, mainly because of the size of the manager and his history of approvals ( 575 approved and only 1 rejected). .

Bitcoin enters “Red September” with no good news

Speaking of history, Bitcoin has a certain trauma from the months of September. In the past ten periods, eight of them have been bearish, and the SEC’s stance in delaying its decision on an ETF this Friday (31) finally culminated in the beginning of Bitcoin’s worst month.

Bitcoin Monthly Income (2013 – 2023).  Source: Glassnode.
Bitcoin Monthly Income (2013 – 2023). Source: Glassnode.

Therefore, Bitcoin may follow tradition and spend another September in the red. In any case, it can also be a nice opportunity for accumulation, after all, the following months are usually good for the market, with the best monthly returns.

Source: Live Coins

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