It’s time for a good bullish forecast, this time from the Dutch analyst PlanB. In the previous bull market, he caused controversy with his Stock2Flow model. This time, Plan B talks about a possible Bitcoin price of $524,000.
When? Sometime in the next four years.
Halving determines the price of Bitcoin
PlanB publishes a chart showing the price at which the most Bitcoins traded at each halving. Halving occurs every four years, halving the number of new Bitcoins added every ten minutes. At the next halving in April or May this will increase from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
Historically, Bitcoin’s value has risen approximately four times the lower limit of its distribution range with each halving. Based on this trend, PlanB believes that Bitcoin could reach a value of half a million dollars in the coming years.
PlanB also believes that the next bull market could be even more explosive than in the past. Because there are several macro factors that have influenced the 2021 cycle, such as the corona pandemic.
- At the 2012 halving, most bitcoins were worth less than $16.
- At the 2016 halving, most BTC was in the $256 to $1,024 range.
- At the 2020 halving, most BTC was in the $4,000 to $16,000 range.
- At the halving in 2024, most Bitcoins will be between $16,000 and $65,000.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the BTC between $65,000 and $524,000 were transferred over the next four years.”
Most Bitcoiners are in the black
The analyst says Bitcoin won’t stay below $40,000 for long. He shares another chart showing Bitcoin trading above two-year and five-month realized price levels.
Bitcoin’s realized value is the sum of all Bitcoin prices at which it last traded divided by the number of Bitcoins in circulation. It is a way to calculate the average price that Bitcoin owners paid for their coins.
The realized value can be used to put Bitcoin’s current value into perspective. If the realized value is lower than the current market value, it means that most Bitcoin owners purchased their coins for less than their current value. This could be an indication that the market is undervalued and that the price of Bitcoin will rise.
Plan B: “Enjoy Bitcoin under $40,000 while it lasts…”
Source: BTC Direct
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Barry Siefert is an accomplished journalist and author at The Nation View. He is known for his expertise in the field of cryptocurrency, and has written extensively on the topic. With a background in finance and economics, Barry has a deep understanding of the underlying technology and market forces that drive the crypto industry.
