Pessimistic analyses to keep you informed

Pessimistic analyses to keep you informed

Given the market’s resistance to continuing its rise, we’ve selected analyzes that include a commotion in the community. Please note that these analyses are opinions only and should not be construed as investment advice..



Is the bull cycle really over? Absolutely yes, and in this review I’ll tell you why!

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The cryptocurrency market is dying before our eyes. If you are a lover of many currencies, you can clearly see this in your account balance.

Bitcoin price failed to hold the key 62k level (0.618 FIB) which is an extremely strong sign of weakness. If you look at my Elliott Wave count you will see that the main impulse wave (12345) is complete.

This is a wave of momentum from the beginning of the bull market (15476) to the end of the bull market (73777). Look at wave (2) and wave (4), both have a correction of 21.35%, so this Elliott Wave count fits perfectly.

The next reason is the rectangular band at the top of the uptrend. The range is clearly breaking down, which is again a sign of weakness. In addition, we have a rising trendline that is also breaking down.

Currently, there is nothing bullish about this chart. Statistically, what is the classic correction for Bitcoin during major bear markets? 90%, 84% or 77%. On the chart, I have marked the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement for a 54% correction. But will this Fibonacci level really hold? Maybe temporarily, but eventually the price will drop below it sooner or later.

Another thing we can consider is the 20-week moving average. Bitcoin is currently below it and we haven’t seen any reaction yet.

What to do now? Should You Sell Your Bitcoin? My arguments are very strong, and I don’t even want to know what will happen to altcoins. Will altcoins turn to dust? I’m pessimistic.

Coin rule


The 2024 bull market has lost steam. Bitcoin’s price, initially fueled by the influx of ETFs and momentum surrounding its halving, has been slowly pulling back since briefly hitting a new all-time high in March of this year.

For the most part, altcoins are experiencing a depressing market in 2024. Aside from a brief memecoin frenzy, the prices of most projects have been steadily declining since the start of the year. The market is slowing down, which is especially visible in the lower trading volume. The most liquid pair, BTCUSDT, regularly has days where volumes are less than $10 billion. At the beginning of this year, the amount traded was 3-4 times higher.

The upcoming release of 142,000 Bitcoins, or approximately $8.6 billion, by Mt. Gox could have more disadvantages. The administrators of Mount Gox, the exchange that was hacked in 2014, have announced that refunds will begin in July this year. This highly anticipated event is expected to provide market participants with capital with 100x returns.

Bitcoin was just below $500 when the market crashed. Customers will receive a cash refund, so early Bitcoin buyers will receive a big payout.

The number of claims sold to professional funds is an unknown factor in this case. Many users did not expect the return of their Bitcoins and sold Mt. Gox claims on funds with deep discounts.

These funds will likely seek significant profits to satisfy their investors. Bitcoin Cash will also be distributed to holders. This derivative of Bitcoin, known as a “fork,” was launched in November 2017. Each Bitcoin holder received an equal amount of Bitcoin Cash. When the redemptions on Mount Gox begin, BCH will be hit the hardest, as many Bitcoin holders from 2014 see it as a “free gift.”

To make matters worse, this low summer period is when the US and German governments choose to sell Bitcoins seized from criminals. German authorities’ Bitcoin activities date back to a massive seizure of nearly 50,000 BTC, worth about $3 billion, from illegal film piracy website Movie2k in January. Meanwhile, the US government has transferred more than $240 million in seized Bitcoin to Coinbase.

A victim of this market could be the Ethereum ETF. The launch of the Bitcoin ETF in January was a subject of speculation: was it a ‘sell on the news’ event? Bitcoin certainly proved to be an exception and the price rally began. The question arises again for ETHUSD.

Bitcoin is known to many professional investors as digital gold. Ethereum’s claim to be the “global settlement layer” is less obvious to those outside the cryptocurrency industry. If the ETF launch doesn’t live up to expectations, cryptocurrency markets could be in for a painful and slow summer.

My crypto paradise


Do you follow Binance Coin (#BNB)? Our latest analysis suggests that a critical moment is approaching. Let’s dive into the details.

BNBUSDT is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern in the 1D timeframe. Previously, we saw a failed breakout that strengthens the bearish tilt. Currently, BinanceCoin is retesting the lower support level of the symmetrical triangle, and there is a possibility that it may decline further.

Declining trading volume and VRVP’s POC acting as resistance increase the chances of a further decline. If BNB fails to hold support at the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, it is likely to retest the Bullish Order Block (OB) around $460.3. However, if BNB fails to hold at $460.3, the next support level is at $422.9. This area is full of liquidity and, if tested, could create a good chance of recovery.

On the other hand, if the lower support level of the symmetrical triangle holds well, we could see the bulls take control, which could lead to a bullish rally. Overall market sentiment and Bitcoin movement will significantly influence BNB’s price action, so keep an eye on these factors. If you want to be consistently profitable, you need to be extremely patient and always wait for high probability trading opportunities.

Disclaimer: The analyses presented here are only studies. They are not investment recommendations, nor buy or sell recommendations, nor do they reflect the opinion of the media in which they are published. These are studies aimed at people with knowledge and experience of the financial market

Source: Live Coins