Meteorologists expect the end of La Niña at the beginning of next year

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02:00 o’clock

Late crops may have the best chance of increasing yields
Late crops may have the best chance of increasing yields

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The short-term weather outlook remains unfavorable for agricultural producers for the remainder of 2022, but there is hope for a change early next year. Cindy Fernandez, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, predicted below-normal rainfall for the next few weeks without much accumulation, especially in the Pampas region and the northern part of the country.

An exception may be in the provinces of NOA, where the precipitation characteristic of the wet season may begin. Rainfall prospects for October and November are below normal, especially in the NEA, east of Buenos Aires, Cuyo and north-central Patagonia.

For the rest of the country, Fernandez expects conditions to be close to normal. The justification for this poor forecast is that the La Niña phenomenon continues to be active for the third year in a row, a rare sequence that was already witnessed in the 1970s and 1990s. According to forecasts reviewed by Cindy, the event could maintain its impact until early to mid-summer and then diminish its effects.

For his part, meteorologist Leonardo de Benedictis agrees with the difficult outlook in the short term, but is more optimistic in the medium term. “In October and November, precipitation records will still be unstable, isolated and will not complete the charging of profiles satisfactorily, instead taking the form of nuclei,” he believes.

This modality will continue until the end of spring due to the influence of La Niña, but the event may end earlier than predicted two months ago: it would last from March-April to January-February.

“Many global-scale models show that La Niña’s influence could begin to wane as early as 2023.Which would be good news for the producers of a large part of the national territory, although we must not forget that the transition from this type of event to neutral is not instantaneous,” he explains.

“March may create a different atmospheric circulation pattern, with more precipitation in the central region and the north of the country,” he predicts. If this prospect is realized, late summer crops can benefit from early sowing.

Source: La Nacion

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