Dollar today: The blue fell and stocks rallied 10% in anticipation of new economic measures

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Between the good international climate and the anticipation of the government’s announcement of new economic measures, the local square started the week with green numbers. Today, the free dollar is declining, while sovereign bonds have managed to recover After a strong fall recorded by the front wheels. Argentine stocks listed abroad, meanwhile, showed an increase of up to 10%.

In caves and small trees city Buenos Aires, The blue dollar started at $284 in October. 4 dollars less compared to Friday’s close (-1.4%). It has been two weeks since the ticket sold in the informal market is positioned at the current level, at an intermediate point between the financial dollar and the “tourist” ($269.93).

In contrast, financial exchange rates acted unevenly. The European Parliament dollar was offered for $297.42, Up almost $2 from last Friday (+0.6%). dollar Dollar Counted Settlement (CCL) Down $2 to $306.98 (-0.6%).

“The government closed the third quarter of the year better than everyone expected. The issues that dominated the agenda before the two ministers (renewal of maturity in the peso, record exchange rate gap, critical reserve levels and deterioration) are now at a more satisfactory level. However, when we analyze what were the determinants that explained this behavior, we see that most of them are either not repeated or do not have a positive perspective in the short term,” they warned from Consultatio Investment.

After the end of the soybean dollar rate on Friday of last week, analysts are now looking at “today”. According to the information of the brokerage firm, the second half of the year is characterized by macro negative seasonality, and at the international level, the context has become tougher and developing currencies have been under more pressure in the last month. “Together, we expect these factors to increase pressure on the exchange rate gap as we approach the end of the year.“, he warned.

At the other end of the foreign exchange market, A wholesale dollar sold for $148.23, That is, 1 dollar more than the previous closing (+0.6%). this way, gap With the blue dollar, it was positioned at about 91%; Against CCL, the highest quote, the price difference is above from 107%.

“Excessive demand pressure on foreign exchange (mainly a product of low seasonal supply) will re-emerge.”In a context where the exchange rate gap – which has widened again in recent weeks – continues at a level incompatible with the future economic stability scenario.A real exchange rate that does not contribute to a current account surplus that is sustained over time in the face of a lack of external financing and where demands arise from other exporting sectors for a similar rate,” they added from Ecolatina Economic. consultant.

Ten days ago, local stocks and bonds were hit by the weakness experienced in recent rounds at the international level, given fears of a global recession. However, today the trend has changed and The S&P Merval rose 4.3% to 145,062. The local stock market panel was led by Banco Supervielle (+9.3%), YPF (+8.7%) and Banco Macro (+8.6%).

The same thing happened with Argentine shares listed on Wall Street (ADR). YPF papers promoted by 10%, Followed by Banco Macro (+8%), Corporación América (+7.9%), Tenaris (+7.9%) and Banco Supervielle (+7.7%).

country risk remained stable by 2702 basis pointsAlthough Bonds The last debt swap was operating in positive territory. Overseas sovereign bonds rose to 7.7% (GD30D); Locally, 6% (GD30).

“Removal of the NorthAccompanied by Brazilian assets, after the reading that left the first electoral round, He tries to use ADRs in particular, as dollar bonds only manage to trail shyly despite penalized parities. Beyond these external fluctuations, Operators are also closely watching the new exchange rate measures that follow the “soy dollar”, tSince they expect to know the strategy that will be used in this last quarter, where the supply of foreign currency will be lower and this may require the use of “defensive tactics” on reserves, Gustavo Ber, head of Estudio Ber, summarized.