According to some economists, the central bank could use more currency restrictions before the start of the World Cup in Qatar

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Ahead of the World Cup in Qatar, some economists say the central bank (BCRA) could use more currency restrictions. The version being circulated is that the government will analyze the ban on the use of cards abroad to close one of the loopholes through which reserves are being lost and thereby contribute to one of the goals agreed with the International Monetary Fund. The possibility of this was denied in the Central Bank.

According to the BCRA, $507 million was spent on travel, tickets and other card payments in April, which is similar to several months of 2019. And while the deficit was much higher – $1.359 billion in January 2018 – then, net reserves was 30,000 million USD, Vs 4 billion dollars today.

“The issue is reservations. If a person has no money and goes on a trip, he is a kamikaze. I think the dollar card doesn’t arrive in the summer. “Even if the deficit does not increase, the current deficit of around $500 million is unsustainable.” said Fernando Marul, FMyA partner in dialogue ღ.

For his part, EcoGo economist Lucio Garay Mendez said the most worrying thing is that the red price has accelerated even with exchange restrictions. “2019 levels have recovered, except that there was no inventory for much of that year. Along with the shares, things fell and then the pandemic came,” he explained. For example, in April 2021, dollars spent on travel, tickets and other payments totaled $113 million.

And the dwindling of already meager reserves adds another complication, according to Garay Mendes, which must be matched Reserve goal Included in the latest agreement with the International Monetary Fund.

“They’re going to have to do something because it’s difficult. according to our calculations, Between now and the end of the month, BCRA needs to buy $150 million net per day to reach its goal of buying an average of $5 million per day and collecting $36 million per month. The goal of the first quarter was accomplished, but now You have to see what happens. If there is a reorganization or if it is not done, but today they have to take measures to try to get closer.” Express your opinion.

The second obstacle is An increase in the deficit that could be caused by the next World Cup. According to economist Fabio Ezequiel Ventre of the Cordoba stock exchange, 54,000 Argentines traveled to Russia for the 2018 edition, of which 20,000 would leave the country. i If that number were repeated and the 20,000 spent about $6,500 per person, the deficit would increase by $130 million. If Argentina got out of the group stage and the cost was 10,000 USD, it would be possible to talk about an additional 200 million USD.

The deficit calculation is similar to Maruli’s, But based on the 2014 World Cup. “I don’t think the $507 million deficit will peak at $1.4 billion, but it could go up to $700 million.” If you look at what the price of the blue dollar was in 2014, it looks like it is today, updated. So it makes sense to expect a shortage as then. assessed.

According to his calculations, the possibilities that then open up are either a Splitting the exchange so that the tourist dollar would have a price more similar to that of an MEP plus 30% and 35% taxes, or imposing a “PAIS square tax”. There will be another opportunity Adjust to the stock side ie drop the tourist dollar option.

Speaking to this newspaper, the president of the Chamber of Airlines of Argentina (Yurca), Felipe Baravale, said that the option of banning the use of cards abroad would be as follows. “Shut down Argentina” because many Argentinians cannot access official dollars, Except that not everyone who travels is a tourist, but there are citizens who travel for medical treatment, overseas training or work.

On the other hand, if this option were to drop, not only would fewer Argentines leave, but the airline’s frequencies would also decrease. Fewer foreigners would enter the country, that is, dollar income would be lost.

“While international passenger numbers are recovering, if you compare May this year to May 2019, you still see a 45% drop. Some say the planes are full, but that’s because there are fewer frequencies than before the pandemic. We are not going to go back to these numbers because Apart from the 30% and 35% taxes, the passengers were left without payment for tickets, accommodation and service installments. described.

Finally, he insisted on another point that the sector always emphasizes, which is that the travel account includes expenses made to buy services abroad, such as Netflix, or goods in web stores, such as, for example, Tiendamia, which are not tourism. expenses.