The Cabinet: Two empty chairs that add to the pressure on the mainstay of inflation

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The A new crisis in Alberto Fernandez’s cabinet This is undoubtedly a political challenge. However, behind the officials who go The functions are hidden, and behind them are the policies that are implemented.

According to outgoing ministers Juan Zabaleta and Claudio MoroniMotives for chaining his doors are based on personal or territorial issues, in the case of the former minister. Social development returns to Hurlingham. They have not been their policy, they slide. But rearranging parts and imposing new names It may fully affect the plans of the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa.

The case is as follows. Two of the three revamped portfolios, the other being the Ministry of Women, Gender and Diversity, is responsible for some central areas of what could be economic policy heading into an election year.L. Through Zabaleta’s office, there are interactions with social movements, street management, welfare plans and even food distribution until the end of the year, one of the most intense moments of the social calendar.

for another, Where Moroni ruled, neither more nor less gross wages would be negotiated in a year when projected inflation is already 100%.. But that’s not all. Among these tables, which only attempt to track inflation as closely as possible, is the radicalization of some unions. The tire conflict revealed a new paradigm among those running from the left to the historic CGT. And criticism of Moron’s management came as 36 meetings were held without agreement and the country paralyzed its sectorial industry in the rhythm of this parity.

The most important problem is that there is rampant inflation. CWith incredible passivity, Argentine society has become accustomed to living with triple-digit inflation.Even in a regulated price economy, where the government is taxing everyone and everything it can.

now yes Survey of Market Expectations (REM), compiled and published by the Central Bank Based on forecasts from 25 consultants and banks, it is already 90.5% by 2023, up 6.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Too fast to go unnoticed.

If you look at the Masa plan that he launched and that is going to be in the election year, there are not many drivers of general price increases, except for government spending. Part of this can be seen in the presentation of the budget project, which the minister made in the Congress in recent weeks. Although the numbers are based on assumptions that sound like fiction, 60% inflation, for example, smacks of holding back on spending.

However, the name of the new ministers, the political godfather who supports them to put their name on the front of everyone and Antecedent loyalty can cause this single inflationary drive, insignificant but lonely, to be irreversibly unleashed.

That being said, there will be new names for the empty seats. The appointments come at a key moment: the debate on the 2023 budget is open.. In fact, the project has not even touched the site.

Right before the matter was discussed outside the commissions, there were already arrows. As has been the case for a long time, the fire was not from the opposition, but from the famous “friendly fire”. Christina Kirchner took to Twitter to take the first jab at Massa’s numbers. He demanded, word more, word less, some point increase to tackle poverty, the very day INDEC announced an index showing 36% poor and 10% destitute.

then, Social development was led by ZabaletaA minister who tried with some success to leave the demands of social organizations with a closed number system. That is, there are no more social plans, where necessary, to convert or increase the amount.

Now, in a few days, that place is no longer occupied. Between taking on a new minister, adjusting to the cabinet and starting the cycle, there will always be a conflicted end to the social year. Can the new official sustain the expenses with such rates of poverty and destitution, with the wages he loses every day against inflation? The answer is that it certainly won’t. This means more government spending, the only inflationary driver of mass.

In another ministry—at work—those still sitting on Moroni’s warm seat will face a joint batch of trucks driven by the born-again. Paul Moyano. You will receive it with the number 131 on your chest. It is true that the trade unions demand to maintain the purchase level of salaries. But it is equally true that this range will cause macroeconomic effects.

A whole combination of subsidies is added to this panorama. The division between the cost of providing services and the price paid for their existence has always been a very serious problem. Electricity, gas and transport, most importantly, form the paradigm of frozen tariffs. One piece of information, for example: train travel is paid 1% and 3% – Yes, zero is missing – how much does it cost to operate the railway; And for groups, about 10% of the total amount spent by the system.

The same is true for electricity and gas, although the percentage varies. Mass has in mind to put some order in these numbers. And for this, the indicators will have to increase in the election year, which is an unprecedented experiment in all Kirchnerism. In addition, of course, he will have to renegotiate several zeroes with the two ministers.