Soybeans rose 1.4% in Chicago on forecasts of a smaller US crop.

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Soybeans rose 1.4% yesterday on the Chicago Stock Exchange after the United States Department of Agriculture. (USDA) It cut its forecast for the current US oilseed crop from 119.16 to 117.38 million tonnes in the monthly Agricultural Estimates report. The revision, the second in a row after a forecast of 123.30 million tonnes in August, was not in the estimates of operators, who had forecast production at 119.23 million tonnes before the release of the official report.

That discrepancy between expectations and what happened carried over to the boards, with November and January soybean contracts up $7.25 and $6.25, which adjusted to $512.94 and $516.25 a tonne.

The USDA’s reasoning for the reduction in the number of crops in the United States – the crop has already reached 44% of the suitable area – was a drop in the national average yield, from 33.96 to 33.49 centels per acre.

The increase in prices was not much due to the increase in initial stock – 6.53 to 7.45 million tons – which has already been taken by the market after the quarterly report that the USDA published on the 30th of last month. and with a decrease calculated by the US export agency from 56.74 to 55.66 million tons. These variables contributed to the fact that ending stocks for the 2022/2023 campaign remained at 5.44 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous month, but the lowest level since the 2013/2014 cycle of 2.50 million.

Another factor that limited growth was the USDA-estimated increase in the record volume of soybean production in Brazil, from 149 to 152 million tons. Thus, the US agency agreed with the 152.35 million tons forecast last week by the National Supply Company (Conab), a subsidiary of Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture.

This good expectation of the harvest in Brazil is based on the rains that have been consistently falling in the south and southeast of the country in recent months, which allows us to predict a good start to the evolutionary stages of the crops. and accumulate moisture until the end of the year, which is expected with below-normal rainfall in the mentioned regions as a result of La Niña, which caused heavy losses in the 2021/2022 campaign, in particular in the state of Paraná.

somewhat slowed down by these rains, On Monday, Konab reported that Brazilian soybean planting progressed to 42.89 million hectares, up 11% from forecasts.Against 4.6% last week and 12.4% at the same time in 2021.

For Argentina, the USDA kept its soybean crop forecast unchanged at 51 million tons.

In Argentina’s physical market, the Rosario Stock Exchange reported yesterday that demand opened at $400 a tonne for soybeans for delivery by the end of the month, a price equivalent to 60,336 pesos a tonne, implying a significant improvement. of the 50,000 pesos offered by factories on Tuesday. Despite this, there was very little activity and little interest from sellers.

Bids for the ports of Bahia Blanca and Necochea yesterday were also $400 per ton of soybeans.

External lifts in Matba Rofex had no correlation. Conversely, the November soybean position lost $2.30 to settle at $395.20 a tonne, while the May contract closed unchanged at $376.50.

In the export market, the FOB price of soybeans at Argentine ports increased from $579 to $592 per ton, while the price of soybean meal increased from $480 to $491.According to the National Secretary of Agriculture, the price of soybean oil remained at 1248 dollars per ton.