It is not only what the government does that matters, but how the public responds

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09:30

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With the pleasure of receiving you in this space, we invite you to think together today not only What does the value reserve mean for the coming months? but inside With whom to maintain this value.

Speculating means making decisions today about the future. Without the slightest idea of ​​what might happen in the future. For this reason, we are all constantly speculating when we think about where to invest our money and with whom to do it, with whom to share a trip, or what career or entrepreneurship to support or cancel. The result will determine whether we were responsible and intelligent, a failure, or rigid.

What we know in Argentina for the coming months:

We’re going to have it more inflation, With the monetary issue to no avail and inventory shortages leading to further supply constraints, coupled with exchange rate delays, exchange rate lags and wage adjustments, it is impossible to lower inflationary expectations. The increase in the price index will be greater and greater

We’re going to have it less dollars As the drought is hitting the current wheat and corn crops hard, prices are not as good as they have been in recent months. That is, we will have less grain at low international prices.

We’re going to have it A more unfavorable global context, Interest rates rise and economic activity levels fall due to armed conflicts.

The blue dollar will be under more pressure on the famous Qatari dollar.

Instead of encouraging investment to earn more foreign currency, the government seems to enjoy picking and choosing who deserves the dollar.

let’s live distributive offering among the poor, Because dollars are scarce, there are industrialists who think they should not sell dollars to travelers abroad, but those who travel say they deserve it, and the industrialists should bring their own. Representatives of the International Monetary Fund say that the dollar is for debt settlement and no one should use it. The producers of Coldplay say that these few dollars are needed to bring the band to raise the mood of the population. Those who bring in tires argue that they are necessary to stop protests and slashings. They are fine, but none of them are going to get the dollars they need. On top of all this, the government, instead of encouraging investment to increase foreign exchange earnings, seems to be arbitrarily depriving itself of the choice of who deserves a few dollars a month.

It is the most ironic A debate about who deserves a dollar that belongs to no one, Because they belong to the one who manufactures, manufactures and exports them and no one asks him about the value. Moreover, there are exporters who continue to pay 150 pesos.

So, to all the malaise that our macroeconomics has, we have to add a lack of empathy among the private economic sectors due to bad public policy.

And what is it reserve value, in this context?

Obviously, this weight is not in our country. Its loss of purchasing power is known and accelerating. The easiest thing is to save in another currency (Dollar, Euro, Crypto), but it is not the most efficient, because they are also devalued (at a very low rate). An example taken from the movie The Founder is the famous “Quarter Pound Cheeseburger”. It was born in 1969, cost and weighed a quarter of a pound. Today it costs five dollars. This is an indicator of the depreciation of the United States currency.

“Asset prices and investor quality are always good thermometers for expectations and risk perception”

In this context, I prefer to invest in the private sector rather than the public sector. I believe An entrepreneur has much more opportunities to generate than a large corporation or company that depends on the state.

What to do with 100,000 pesos:

1. The saver can a Fixed term in pesos And earn 75% annual interest. By renewing your deposit every 30 days, you will earn 200,000 pesos per year. I’d consider doing this with 25% of the money down, considering what you’ll need to spend next year.

2. The saver can invest this money in a fixed term UVA, which regulates inflation. For me, the level of price increase will exceed three digits. The saver then achieves the goal of maintaining the purchasing power of his money. The problem is that the investment has a minimum term of 90 days; Therefore, I would bet only 15%.

3. With the remaining 60%, I would dollarize the portfolio with three products: 20% Argentine dollar bonds; It’s very risky, but they’re 20% worth, and if it goes well, the amount can be multiplied by four, and if it goes wrong, there’s little to lose. There is another way of dollarization Invest in companies you trust In which you would like your children to work, in which you are happy to buy what they produce, in which you want to work yourself. But first, you have to ask yourself: What risk are you willing to take? How profitable should it be for me to delegate the trust, given that there is an agreed diagnosis that the world in general and Argentina in particular, are going through a more recessionary cycle?

“This is the time to start taking some risks and investing in companies, because I believe that the next cycle, after the crisis, will be productive.

For some – like me – it’s worth the risk because the payoff is great and these are the moments to take on the challenges. For others who do not trust those who drive, it is advisable to take this trip, beyond the promises of attractive rent and Roberto Moldavski would say that there is no strong currency hidden in a sock.

In particular, I believe that it is time to start taking some risks and slowly invest in companies, because I believe that the next cycle, after this crisis, will be productive.

Finally, I prefer to invest my children’s money An entrepreneur who will take care of these savings More than a politician or a mega-corporation that trades with a government, central bank or multilateral organization.

The price of assets and the quality of investors are always there Very good wind chill thermometers on expectations and implicit risk perception. The capital market turns out to be a great creator of “values” in every sense. measurable monetary values ​​and “ethical values” that determine whether an asset or person is able to endure.

One can invest, in pesos, in shares of Argentine companies or companies from anywhere in the world. The latter option exists thanks to the so-called Yield (Argentine Depositary Receipts that replicate the behavior of global companies). In the last one year they have been declining a lot and are a manageable risk. I always say that risk is not what you invest in, but how much you invest. If you buy a portion that allows you to sleep peacefully, sooner or later the result will be very satisfying.

Once, when they were looking for investments, they told me: “It is important not only what the government does, but also how the public reacts to it.

One last paragraph indicated with whom to hold the value. I consider, before any material attribute or expertise, if you positively test two questions that you answer with your intuition: 1) Would you buy a used car from him? 2) Would you give up managing your children’s or parents’ money?

Seneca said: “You should enjoy the pleasures of today without compromising for the future.” Savings converted into investment can lead to consumption restrictions in the present to enjoy better days in the future.