The “Best” leave a bomb in Giorgia’s accounts: 58 billion to be paid in 4 years

Spread and inflation: thus, after the Draghi government, interest spending on government bonds explodes

Inflation will also have negative effects on the Italian state’s accounts: the interest expense of the public debt, that is, what the Treasury recognizes to bot and btp subscribers, will increase globally by more than 58 billion euros in a period of four years. , from 2022 to 2025.

This was revealed by an analysis by the Unimpresa study center that processed the data reported in the last Update Note of the Economic and Financial Document. According to the study of state coffers, in relation to 2021, there will be 11.4 billion more this year, 14.2 billion more in the next, 13.9 billion in 2024 and 18.6 billion in 2025.

Increases in pensions are also expected: in total, between 2022 and 2025, INPS checks will weigh in the state coffers by another 161 billion: if in 2021 pension payments reached 286 billion, in 2025 they will reach almost 350 billion . The document predicts that public debt interest expenditure is destined to increase progressively in the coming years: the increase in inflation has raised the cost of money, leading the ECB to increase the reference rate, which is why the interest rates applied to bots and btps.

Throughout the year, interest rates in the last public bond auctions registered progressive increases. This has resulted in a rise in interest rates: for 2022 alone, the Italian state will pay another 11.4 billion euros: from 63.7 in 2021 to 75.1 in 2022 (+17.9%). Next year, the Treasury will pay bots and btp subscribers 77.9 billion, equivalent to 14.2 billion more than in 2021 (+22.3%). In 2024, total spending will stop at 77.7 billion, slightly below the previous year, but even higher, compared to 2021 at 13.9 billion (+21.9%); in 2025, 82.5 billion will come out of the State’s coffers in direct interest to subscribers of public bonds, which is equivalent to a difference of 18.6 billion in relation to last year (+ 29.3%).

In total, over the five years in question, interest expenditure on government bonds will be 377.1 billion, a good 58.3 billion more than would have come out of Treasury coffers had inflation not driven growth. interest, leaving the cost of debt service stable. Interest expense, which in relation to GDP was 3.6% in 2021, will rise to 4% this year, and then settle at 3.9%.

Rising inflation represents one of the factors, along with demographics, that will also increase pension spending: in 2021, INPS checks cost a total of 286.2 billion and already this year there will be an increase of 11.1 billion (+3.9%) with a total of 297.3 billion. In 2023, total pension expenditure will increase to 320.8 billion, an increase of 34.5 billion (+12.1%) compared to 2021; in 2024, the total will rise again to 338.2 billion, an increase of 52.1 billion (+18.2%) compared to 2021 and in 2025, then, the value of pension expenditures will reach 349.7 billion, with a positive variation of 63.5 billion (+ 22.2%) compared to last year. Over the five years under analysis, expenditure on pensions will amount to 1,592.5 billion, an increase of 161.1 billion. Pension expenditure, which in relation to GDP was 16.1% in 2021, will increase to 16.4% in 2024 and 2025.