Under the Christmas tree there will be a donation of nearly 4,000 euros for Italian families. Perhaps, the last gift of this 2022, now running out. Yesterday the Istat summarized the twelve months lived in the wave of rising prices, calculating the acquired inflation equal to 8.1% for the general index and 3.7% for the basic component, that is, liquid energy and fresh food. But a cost of living of 11.8%, the value of November, translates, for the same consumption, into an amount equal to a total of 3,625 euros per year per family, and is destined to have very strong repercussions on Italian Christmas. «Due to price increases, a typical family», explained Codacons, «considering the total consumption expenses, is now spending more than 3,600 euros per year. A real blow that will also have repercussions on the expenses of Italians linked to the end of the year holidays ».
Based on consumer estimates, in fact, with prices at these levels and high bills still affecting the country, one in three families will reduce consumption during the holidays, above all by cutting non-primary expenses such as gifts, travel, catering, housing ”, with damage to trade and the national economy”. equivalent to a higher expenditure per resident family equal to +3,462 euros on an annual basis. The region with the lowest growth in the price lists is Valle d’Aosta (+8.7%) with an increase of around +2,929 euros per year per resident family.
And for the next few months? Here the ball is passed to the Bank of Italy, according to which consumer inflation, equal in Via Nazionale’s calculations to 8.8% on average this year, would fall to 7.3 next year, to 2.6 in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025. In the previous October estimate, it was forecast at 8.5 percent for 2022, 6.5 percent on average for 2023 and 2.3 percent for 2024. In today’s projections, “ the fall would mainly reflect the clear reduction in the contribution of the energy component, associated with the hypothesis of a reduction in the prices of raw materials, only partially offset by the acceleration of wages”. Returning to the current year, after sustained growth in the central quarters of 2022, “which also determines a strong carry-over effect in 2023, household consumption is expected to decline at the end of 2022 and in the first months of next year, feeling the impact of the sharp increase in prices on disposable income.
Source: IL Tempo
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
