One of the arguments most used by those who criticize the electric car is that the energy we will produce will not be enough to charge them and at the same time meet the electricity needs of the country. This, mind you, wouldn’t be wrong at all, absurdly assuming all car owners instantly decided to “convert” it to a battery. But as we know, the electrification will not happen overnight, but in at least twenty or thirty years, so much so that even the famous EU ban on the sale of polluting cars will come into effect “only” in 2035.
The problem will undoubtedly arise in the next five or ten years, when electric cars will begin to represent a significant (and not a marginal share as they are today) of cars on the road. How much energy will it take to recharge them? And then: will renewable sources suffice, or will we have to continue using fossil and polluting fuels (partially nullifying the benefits of electric cars)? Doubts are good. Let’s try to understand one more thing by trying to set aside prejudices and ideologies.
How much energy do we need today?
Electricity demand in Italy was 316.8 TWh, down 1% from 2021, according to data from Terna, the company that manages the national transmission network. the collapse of hydroelectric production caused by drought (-37.7% compared to the previous year).
Saying goodbye to fossil fuels, more electricity will be needed
So how much energy will it take to run electric cars? Let’s start with a long-term forecast included in the “Italian long-term strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions”, a document prepared by the government and dated January 2021. Double demand by 2050 and “place it at 600-700 TWh with a share of 95% to 100% covered by renewable energy”. A result that can reach a production between 200 and 300 GW, that is 10-15 times the current generation, provided that “unused resources” are increased, primarily “off-shore wind and then photovoltaic”. So this is a big challenge.
It should be emphasized that the increase in energy demand will be determined not only by electric cars, but also – if not above all – by the electrification of other sectors, primarily heating. At the same time, it should be emphasized that the main objective of the plan is to reduce final consumption, both in terms of transport and domestic consumption, by “about 40% compared to current levels”. How? Meanwhile, by making buildings more efficient and then enticing citizens to use public transport at the expense of private transport, with a significant reduction in the vehicle fleet: from 40 million existing vehicles to 24 million (19 all-electric) by 2050. The goal, let’s face it, is very ambitious. .
Scenarios for the next twenty years
According to Terna’s projections, assuming a scenario consistent with the EU legislative package ‘Fit-for-55’ targets, energy needs will rise to 357 TWh in 2030, adding 9 TWh for hydrogen production. electrolysis thus reached a total of 366, an increase of over 46 TWh compared to the electricity demand recorded in 2019 (and therefore 49 compared to 2022).
It is estimated that there will be eight million all-electric vehicles by then, adding 2.5 million rechargeable cars and 33,000 more electric vehicles, including buses and battery trucks. For 2040, Terna examined two contrasting scenarios “Distributed Energy” and “Global Ambition” as intermediate stages on the road to zero emissions by 2050. TWh. While electric vehicles are expected to reach 14 million, it is estimated that charged vehicles will decrease to 1.5 million.
How much do electric cars affect energy consumption?
We must reiterate that the estimates we have presented so far show the overall increase in energy demand driven by the decarbonization process as a whole. So how much do electric cars affect these consumptions? It is not that difficult, even if it is hand to do some calculations. Assuming an average consumption of 15 kWh per 100 km and an average distance of 12,000 km per year, as the “Vaielettrico” blog does, we reach a total annual consumption of 1,800 kWh. Multiplying this number by 39.8 million (number of cars in Italy) gives us 71.7 Thw. This is 22.6% of what we consume in 2022. All this without assuming a reduction in the desired vehicle fleet, although it is not entirely clear.
It goes without saying that such a marked increase in national demand (unless greatly increasing imports) cannot be met immediately, but in the long run it is likely. At least, that is the view of many industry experts and the institutions themselves, although there is no shortage of critical voices. And there are certainly problems: First of all, renewable resources are intermittent and unscheduled, represented by energy storage capacity, which needs to be improved and made more efficient. Electricity – and decarbonization in general – is a huge challenge. But maybe it can be won.
Source: Today IT
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
