The transfer of tax credits from construction bonuses, starting with the superbonus, will increase the deficit in 2022, recalculated based on the new Eurostat rules. Last year, now attests to Istat, the debt was 8% of GDP, surpassing the target of 5.6% indicated by the Meloni government in the updated Note to the Def revised and integrated in November. And this is because the debt, an improvement compared to the 9% recorded in 2021, was revised following the change introduced in the accounting treatment of tax credits, which led to a worsening revision of the deficit/GDP ratio for the years 2020 and 2021 equal to -0.2 and -1.8 percentage points, respectively. In 2020, the deficit thus stood at 9.7% of GDP, compared to the 9.5% estimated in last September, and in 2021 the net debt was adjusted to 9%, compared to the 7.2% previously forecast.
In absolute terms, the debt for 2022 is equal to 153.447 billion euros, decreasing by around 7.8 billion compared to the previous year. However, this is a deficit level much higher than that which would have been generated by a GDP growth of 3.7% certified today by Istat, a “decisive growth” but lower than that of 2021 and lower than the 3.9% of the preliminary estimates. The debt/GDP ratio fell to 144.7%, from 149.8% in 2021, a better value than the estimate included in the Nadef which, for 2022, pointed to a debt of 145.7% of GDP. And the tax burden was 43.5%, higher than the previous year, due to the growth in tax and social security revenues (+7%) higher than that of GDP at current prices (+6.8%).
The strongest impetus for GDP growth comes from domestic demand. In 2022, final consumption expenditure grew by 4.6% in volume (+4.7% in 2021), driven by expenditure on hotels, restaurants and cultural services, having contributed to GDP growth. Expenditure on consumption of goods, according to Istat, increased by 2.4% and services by 8.8%. The most significant increases, in terms of volume, can be seen in expenditure on hotels and restaurants (+26.3%), recreation and culture (+19.6%) and clothing and footwear (+14.8%). Negative changes were registered in expenses with food and non-alcoholic beverages (-3.7%), with education (-1.2%) and with health services (-0.4%).
Source: IL Tempo
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
