GDP, more OECD confidence in Italy. But the recovery remains fragile


Improved prospects for a global economy that remains fragile. This is what emerges from the OECD’s March Economic Outlook. Business and consumer confidence improves, food and energy prices fall, elements that form part of the scenario surrounding global growth, which is expected to reach +2.6% in 2023 and +2.9% in 2024. For Italy, the Organization revises its projections upwards: the Gross Domestic Product should settle at +0.6% in 2023, against +0.2% estimated in the November Outlook. A +1% is expected for 2024, in line with previous forecasts. “Italy must continue with the structural reforms”, highlights the chief economist of the OECD, Álvaro Pereira, underlining that “the government is taking some important macroeconomic measures” and “we are very happy to continue working with the Italian authorities”.

Meanwhile, for March, Confcommercio estimates a GDP reduction of 0.3% compared to February and 0.2% compared to the same month of 2022. «Overall, the first quarter of 2023 should register a drop of 0.3% compared to the last quarter of 2022, confirming the hypothesis of a very limited recession both in intensity and duration (two quarters)», explains the Cabinet of Studies. In terms of GDP, the improvement concerns the entire Eurozone. The OECD estimates growth of +0.8% in 2023, set to increase further to +1.5% in 2024 when the effects of high energy prices fade. Also in this case, the Organization improves the prospects announced in November which were, respectively, +0.5% in 2023 and +1.4% in 2024. The number one enemy continues to be inflation.

For the secretary general Mathias Cormann, “the fight against inflation is not over yet and the central banks must maintain the orientation” of “bringing back to the target”. In any case, points out the report, monetary policy should remain restrictive until there are clear signs of a lasting reduction in underlying inflationary pressures. In Italy, inflation is estimated at 6.7% in 2023, but is expected to drop to 2.5% in 2024.

Source: IL Tempo


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