Global trade growth will slow to 1.7% this year from 2.7% growth in 2022 due to the continued impact of the war in Ukraine, inflation and financial market turmoil, according to announced estimates. Trade Organization (WTO).
Evolution commercial exchange between countries will be slow despite GDP forecasts for 2023 having improved in recent months (with a forecast of 2.4% growth), although uncertainty has darkened the horizon and undermined the most optimistic forecasts.
As a result, both trade and GDP In 2023, they will be below their average growth rates of 2.6% and 2.7% respectively over the past twelve years.
Photo: Pixabay
The organization took the opportunity to remind that trade is a force for the resilience of the global economy, so governments must avoid fragmentation of trade, as well as remove barriers to import and export.
Last year’s trade growth of 2.7% was already lower than economists had expected, and this was mainly due to disappointing results for October-December, which were influenced by rising prices for basic productstighter monetary policy to curb inflation and the covid outbreak in China.
This last episode of the series pandemic disrupted production and trade with China, which subsequently decided to end this stage, remove all anti-covid measures and reopen their economy to the world.
However, in 2023, the estimated 1.7% growth in international trade is better than expected, precisely due to the projected increase demand for consumer goods in China as soon as the pandemic is behind us.
Photo: Pixabay
On the other hand, WHO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa said that interest rate hikes in the largest countries revealed shortcomings in banking systems which, if left uncorrected, could lead to greater financial instability, and which governments and regulators should be on the lookout for in the coming months.
All of these factors make forecasts for 2024 more uncertain than usual. At present, experts believe that world trade it could recover to 3.2% and GDP could grow by 2.6%.
EFE
Source: Aristegui Noticias
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
