The forecast contained in the Economic and Financial Document of GDP growth of 0.9%, higher than the 0.6% assumed in November, is just the latest sign of confidence that reaches the Italian system. Both the more favorable economic situation a year ago and the work of the Meloni government are producing some results that can be aligned: the energy bill is in sharp reduction, pensions have revalued, new jobs have increased, inflation is decreasing and there is a maxi executive plan for hiring in public administration.
Let’s start with work. More than 100,000 jobs were created between January and February, net of layoffs, according to the latest report prepared by the Ministry of Labor, Bank of Italy and Anpal. An increase that greatly surpasses that of the previous two months. The Minister of Labour, Marina Calderone, spoke of a “sign of confidence for our economy”. Also because it was mainly services that boosted the demand for work, tourism in primis with 22,000 new jobs, equal to a fifth of the total. Industry also performed well, benefiting from the recovery of the more “energy intensive” sectors. And this is where the accounts chapter comes in. Light ones will see a halving (-55%) from April to June. This does not mean that the problem is resolved. On the contrary. Typical family spending remains high: 1,267 euros from July 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023, according to calculations by the Energy Market Regulation Authority (Arera), 33% more than in the same period of the previous 12 months . Thus, despite having fallen by more than half in relation to the first quarter, the cost of energy continues at “high levels”, explains Arera. Although Assoutenti estimates a saving per family of 800 euros per year.
The gas bill also fell, with a reduction of 13.4% in relation to March, after the drops registered in consumption in the months of January (-34.2%) and February (-13%). In terms of final effects, the new cut raises the gas expense of the typical household from April 2022 to March 2023 to around 1,560 euros, +0.7% compared to the equivalent 12 months of the previous year (April 2021 to March 2022). A result that led the Minister of the Environment, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, to state that we are facing a “virtuous path that is bringing effective savings to Italian families and companies. Another important step forward to which the Government has contributed with a precise energy policy strategy implemented since the beginning of its mandate”.
In early April, the effect of the revaluation of pensions also began to be felt. The values modified based on the Budget Law are now the final ones. The mechanism works based on the amount of the pension: the higher it is, the less substantial the readjustment. Checks up to five times the minimum treatment are reassessed in 85%, between five and six times 53%, between six and eight times 47%, eight to ten times 37% and over ten times the minimum in 32%.
Then there are public service jobs. The day before yesterday, the Council of Ministers decreed more than three thousand recruitments. 3,150 to be exact. Of these, two thirds, or 2,100, concern law enforcement, in particular the Carabinieri, the Guardia di Finanza, the fire brigade, the police and the coast guard. While recruitment at the school will start in the summer. Thanks to Pnrr’s resources, 25,000 vacancies compete among professors with at least 36 months of service or holders of 24 university education credits. Then there is a parallel plan to create another 50,000 jobs, with a first wave between this year and next.
“We intend to create the conditions for the regular start of the next school year, guaranteeing the didactic continuity of the students, the quality of teaching and the reduction of precariousness”, explained the Minister of Education Giuseppe Valditara. Recruitment will occur by scrolling through the rankings of competition winners waiting to be hired. In short, the positive signs are clear. Even though some critical issues remain. From high interest rates to rising oil prices. More details will be released on Tuesday, when the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, will take the Def to the Council of Ministers. The GDP of 0.9%, it is pointed out, is a conservative estimate, that is, it was decided to use the lowest value. In the coming months, therefore, the situation may improve even more.
Source: IL Tempo
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
