So we discovered that Giorgia Meloni was cheating on the Democratic Party.
Fabrizio Gatti
Insights Editor-in-Chief
14 April 2023 19:27
From the report on the stabilization program approved by the Council of Ministers on 11 April, it becomes clear that the government was inspired not by Matteo Salvini, but by Paolo Gentiloni when analyzing the employment and migration scenarios. Currently, a graphic accompanying Giorgia Meloni and Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti’s Document on Economy and Finance is circulating. In reality, it is a kind of copy-paste of the simulations already accompanying the 2018 economic and financial document delivered by then-Prime Minister Gentiloni to his successor, Giuseppe Conte. Here’s what we learned.
The fact that Giorgia Meloni’s techs have relaunched the scenarios the Democratic Party envisioned on immigrants and work is news, not bad news. But the re-presentation of this graph, five years later, with nothing substantial in between, confirms the gravity of the situation and the ineffectiveness of previous governments. In 2018, Ministry of Economy technicians reported the impact on the public debt of a full immigration blockade that was not compensated by regular entries.
It seems paradoxical, but if you think about it, it isn’t: “The aging of the population – centre-left government technicians wrote on page 108 in their simulation – represents one of the most critical aspects Italy will have to face over the next few decades”. And this serious obstacle to economic stability is also very clear among the technicians of the Meloni government: “The demographic transition – in fact, they note on page 137 of the 2023 planning document – is one of the most important challenges Italy will face over the coming decades”. Pretty much the same words.
Same scenario as 2018
The Gentiloni government, backed by a coalition centered around the Democratic Party, proposed two alternative scenarios for the period 2022-2070: the first, with a 33 percent decrease in the average annual net migrant flow compared to the 2018 figure, and the other with a 33 percent decrease. 33 percent increase. The results are as follows: “A 33 percent increase in migration flows from 2018 will make it possible to significantly lower the debt/Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio by an average of 19 percentage points relative to the reference base.” GDP in 2018-2070. On the other hand – Gentiloni government technicians have calculated – that the decline in net migration flows from 2018 will have the effect of increasing debt, with an average increase compared to the reference base of GDP of about 22 percentage points between 2018 and 2070″ (Figure below).
The government of Giorgia Meloni also arrives at the same conclusions, assuming the same two scenarios from 2020 to 2070. But with even more serious debt growth projections. “Given the demographics of immigrants entering Italy, a particularly significant effect is observed as the impact is significant on the working-age resident population and thus job offer – actually observe the centre-right manager’s technicians – at the end of the period the debt/GDP ratio in the two alternative scenarios, the reference varies by more than 30 percent depending on the scenario” (figure below).
Today, Italy’s gross domestic product is worth about 1,900 billion euros. Public debt, on the other hand, increased to over 2.762 billion in 2022: the ratio to GDP is approximately 145 percent. In 2019, we were at 134.8 percent before the pandemic. As the population ages – simulations of the two governments explain to us – if we don’t replace retiring workers with younger people, the value of GDP falls, costs for the state rise, and the debt-to-GDP ratio rises as a result. If we continue like this, we will never be able to get out of the cage we have knitted. What to do then?
African plan against landings
Giorgia Meloni’s visit to Ethiopia, where she spoke with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmud on cooperation and migrants, will hopefully be the first phase of a long journey that will require us to find allies on the African continent. Most of the migration flows originate from here. Article 3 of the decree approved after the Cutro shipwreck encourages the launch of Italian-recognised training courses and simplified entry procedures outside of annual quotas. But at the same time, the government’s just announced state of emergency plans to devote funds not to school and vocational training, but to the construction of new removal centers, which Matteo Salvini has requested, at least one in each region. That is, we will spend public money to send back those who have come before and can study in Italy. In short, between Meloni and Salvini, the government will have to choose the most effective solution for the future of the country.
It is right to try to control irregular flows so as not to revive smugglers’ business and increase the risk of shipwrecks. But there is another problem added to this: as the investigation by Irene Fassini, Marialaura Iazzetti and Giampaolo Mannu into MilanoToday’s Dossier shows, deportation procedures don’t work even for foreigners convicted of serious crimes. Indeed, often the economic opportunity is only available to bodies that administer contracts for the detention of irregulars.
Just as many private reception centers operate without any control or evaluation over their results, along with many examples of integrity and success. Evidence of this is the judicial investigation of some (uninvestigated) family members of MP Aboubakar Soumahoro, also in the countryside, especially in the South, where refugees are recruited by the management cooperatives, corporals, into the service of Italian farms, instead of attending compulsory state-paid Italian courses. We spend millions to keep new workers completely ignorant of the rules, language and operation of our democracy. And it goes without saying that all this waste of public money happens in the silence of local associations, municipalities, and the authorities they oversee.
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Source: Today IT

Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.