Private-sector specialists raised their forecast for Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.05% for 2023 from the previous estimate of 1.68%, the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) May Monthly Review showed on Thursday.
On the other hand, the forecast for 2024 fell to 1.58% from the previous estimate of 1.61%, according to the average of 36 national and foreign think tanks and advisory groups that participated in the central bank survey between April 17 and 30.
These forecasts come after it was revealed last Friday that Mexico’s GDP grew 3.7% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2023, above market expectations, according to final data from the National Institute of Statistics and geography (Inegi). .
Similarly, experts have upgraded their end-2023 headline inflation forecast to 5% from the previous forecast of 5.11%.
This forecast comes after it was reported that Mexico’s inflation rate fell to 6.25% in April, the lowest level since October 2021.
In contrast, for 2024, specialists consulted by Banxico raised their inflation forecast to 4.08% from the previous figure of 4.06%.
As factors that could hinder Mexico’s economic growth in the next six months, experts identified governance (62%) and domestic economic conditions (12%) at the overall level.
While at a special level they identified the problems of social insecurity (22%), political uncertainty (14%) and lack of the rule of law (14%).
In terms of the exchange rate, analysts have estimated that the Mexican peso will end 2023 at 18.91 pesos per dollar, lower than the previous forecast of 19.16 pesos per US banknote.
Analysts have calculated that the Mexican currency will exchange at 19.71 units per dollar by the end of 2024, lower than the previous month’s estimate of 19.88.
Pre-pandemic levels were close to 18.5 pesos to the dollar.
As for the external sector, for 2023, trade balance expectations have fallen to a deficit of $20.650 million from the previous $20.724 million.
The forecast for foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2023 has risen to a forecast of $35.226 million from the previous forecast of $33.707 million. EFE
Source: Aristegui Noticias
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
