private sector analysts they improved their gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate to 2% Mexico by the end of 2023, Citibanamex reported on Tuesday.
By 2024, the most recent “Citibanamex Expectations Survey” conducted among 36 think tanks from various banks, brokerages and other “traders” and “brokers” maintains the preliminary forecast at 1.7%.
Private analyst estimates range from maximum 2.7%as expected by XP Investments, and minimum 1.4% from Bursametrica Group.
For the coming year, expectations for the Mexican economy range from 2.8% as forecast by GBM to zero growth by Bank of America estimates.
According to the Mexican government, Expected GDP growth in 2023 is 3%in accordance with the Preliminary Criteria for the Common Economic Policy until 2024.
Recently Deputy Minister of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) Gabriel Yorio said that the minimum growth in the country is 2.3% for this year, so he had no doubt that his predictions for the end of 2023 would come true.
For its part, the Citibanamex study showed that there is currently a consensus among experts that Banco de México (Banxico) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. to 11% by the end of 2023.
The latest monetary policy decision gave pause in the bull cycle interest rates in Mexico, while private experts believe that the first reduction will occur in the last month of the year.
“Consensus median estimate of the target rate at the end of 2023 decreased to 11% from 11.25% two weeks ago, and by the end of 2024 it remained at the level of 8.5%,” the Citibanamex publication says.
The Citibanamex poll also showed that annual headline inflation expectations at the end of 2023 decreased to 5% from 5.1%.
As for core inflation, which excludes highly volatile products such as energy, Analysts polled had expected it to remain at 5.3%. second two weeks in a row.
By 2024, forecasts for Headline inflation remained unchanged at 4%, even above Banco de México’s target rate of 3%.
Also a survey expected a “stronger” exchange rate with a private analyst consensus of 18.7 pesos per dollar at the end of 2023, compared to the previous figure of 19 units per dollar.
Next year the Mexican peso is expected to close at 19.90, a little less than 19.93 pesos in the last issue.
(EFE)
Source: Aristegui Noticias
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
