Core inflation excluding food and energy prices was 10.6% annualized in July 2023, up from 11.1% in 2023. y/y to June 2023
The market consensus was 10.7 percent. y/y
The NBP also announced that core inflation excluding administered prices was 9.6 percent yoy versus 10.3 percent in July. in June.
Core inflation excluding the most volatile prices was 13.7 percent. in July at 14.4 percent. in June.
Core inflation calculated using the 15% trimmed average method was 12%. in July at 12.8 percent. in June.
The consumer price and services index (CPI inflation) amounted to 10.8 percent. y/y in July 2023, compared to 11.5 percent. y/y in June.
Single-digit inflation coming soon?
An inflation rate of 10.6 means that prices are still rising four times faster than the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target of 2.5%. (with an acceptable deviation up or down by 1 percentage point).
According to the National Bank of Poland’s July projection, rising inflation will accompany us for at least two years. This year the average annual price growth rate will be 11.9 percent, in 2024 it is expected to slow to 5.2 percent and in 2025 it will fall to 3.6 percent. show the analyses.
This is the lowest inflation since March 2022. Experts believe we will see single-digit inflation in August.
The data provided confirmed previous estimates. This means that the downward trend in consumer inflation will continue. As a result, we can expect inflation to drop below 10% soon.
There is no consensus among economists whether inflation will fall below 10 percent. in August or September. The risk factor is the prices of commodities, including crude oil. The fall in inflation may have an impact on the policy of the Monetary Policy Council. In his speech in July, the president pointed out that a drop in inflation below 10 percent would be a good idea. is one of the conditions for interest rate cuts. Waldemar Buda, Minister of Development and Technology, also spoke about the possibility of lowering interest rates.
Source: Do Rzeczy
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
