Fitch has cut GDP forecasts for the world’s major economies except Italy and France. The novelty is contained in its Global Economic Outlook. The causes of the slowdown are major economic shocks, from the pandemic to the gas crisis in Europe, which will have a lasting negative impact on production. “GDP in major developed economies will not return to its pre-pandemic path, even in the medium term,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings. The exceptions are Italy and France, whose projections were raised by 0.1%. Now Rome is seen at 0.7% and Paris at 1.2%. In the case of Italy, it is explained, the rise is due to a better investment trend.
The biggest drop (-0.2%) was recorded by the United Kingdom (which fell to 1.2%), Germany (1.1%) and Japan (0.5%). It also lowered the estimate for the United States by 0.1 percentage point to 1.7%. Potential growth projections for Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Spain were unchanged from the previous assessment at 2.1%, 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.4% respectively. “GDP in more developed economies will not return to pre-Covid levels or in the medium term,” says Coulton.
In terms of economic data, the Ministry of Economy and Finance announced that from January to June 2023 tax and social security revenues amounted to 262,528 million euros and 126,248 million euros, respectively. Thus registering an overall variation of +3.6% (+13,485 million euros) compared to the same period of the previous year. This trend is in line with what has already been indicated in the DEF and incorporated in the calculation of trends contained in that document.
Source: IL Tempo
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
