This year we will not experience a recession and next year GDP growth will accelerate to at least 3 percent, estimates Deputy Finance Minister Artur Soboń.
– We close the year 2023 with economic growth – here we have a full consensus from the rating agencies, the European Commission. And in 2024 the Polish economy will return to the growth path we know, with at least 3 percent. in 2024. This year will by no means be a year of recession, Soboń said at the briefing.
The Secretary of State emphasized that the economy will slow somewhat this year and that we will see an increase of about 1% at the end of the year, maybe a little less.
Yesterday, the Central Bureau of Statistics (GUS) announced in a quick data estimate that the Gross Domestic Product (constant average annual prices of the previous year, seasonally adjusted) fell by 0.5 percent. y/y in Q2 2023 versus 0.3% decrease y/y in the prior quarter. The market consensus for the second quarter was 0.3%. decline on a seasonally unadjusted basis.
In the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP (in constant prices with reference year 2015) fell by 3.7% in real terms. compared to the previous quarter and was 1.3 percent lower than the year before.
The draft budget for 2024 assumes a GDP growth of 3%; In this year’s budget amendment, the government assumed GDP growth of 0.9 percent. in 2023
Poland’s GDP decline
Poland entered a technical recession. In the second quarter of 2023, GDP fell by 0.5 percent. Every year. In the previous quarter, the decrease was 0.3 percent. “According to the flash estimate, seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.5% year-on-year in real terms in the second quarter of 2023, compared to an increase of 6.1% in the same period of 2022.” The Central Bureau of Statistics reports this in a statement. The data provided comes as a surprise to experts who did not expect such a large drop. The market consensus for the second quarter was 0.3%. decline on a seasonally unadjusted basis.
Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product fell by 3.7% in real terms in the second quarter of this year (in constant prices with reference year 2015). compared to the previous quarter and was 1.3 percent lower than the year before. The data from the Central Bureau of Statistics are quick estimates. Full second quarter 2023 GDP data will be released on August 31. If GDP falls for two quarters in a row, we can speak of a technical recession, regardless of seasonal factors. Economists point out that the technical recession proves that economic growth in the country has slowed. The effects of the technical recession include a decline in external and internal demand, a reduction in the number and volume of investments, which may translate into a further decline in GDP in the following quarters.
Source: Do Rzeczy
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
