Inflation may reach single digits in August and will continue to fall to 7.9-8.1 percent. in November, thinks Henryk Wnorowski, MPC member.
– Personally, until recently, until July 31, I was sure that it would be single-digit inflation in August. On the other hand, this reading in July surprised me a little negatively, because the reading fell by only 0.7 percentage points – Wnorowski said on TVP Białystok.
– So if this happened again, we would have 10.1 percent, which is still double-digit inflation. But it certainly won’t happen again. Personally, I’m still counting on it to be more, and I’m counting on it to be 9 ahead. But if it’s 10, it’s a small number after that 10,” he added.
He stressed that one can be sure that August will be the sixth consecutive month in which the reading is lower. He explained that inflation was moving towards the central bank’s target (2.5% +/- 1 percentage point), but – as he added – we would only reach it “in some time”.
Wnorowski: Maybe 7.9 percent. in November
– This year I’m counting on the December-November reading, because the December reading may not make much progress, with 7 in favor, maybe 7.9 percent, maybe 8.1 percent. – these are the sizes I personally expect. Later, however, we will talk about average annual inflation and in 2023, unfortunately, it will still be above 10%, or even above 11%,” said the MPC member.
He also pointed out that we will have positive real interest rates a year from now.
The Central Bureau of Statistics published data on inflation in July
According to Statistics Netherlands, consumer inflation in July was 10.8 percent. per year (vs. 11.5% y/y in June). This is the lowest inflation rate since March 2022.
According to the central path of the National Bank of Poland’s July inflation projection, consumer inflation will reach 13.1 percent. y/y in Q2, 10.3 percent in Q3 and 7.8 percent. in Q4. For the whole of 2023, average annual inflation will reach 11.9%, according to NBP analysts.
Source: Do Rzeczy
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
