This year inflation is 11.4%. In 2024 this will drop to 4.6% and in 2025 to 3.7%. – acquired by the National Bank of Poland.
The National Bank of Poland has published the November inflation projection, covering the period from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The starting point of the projection is the third quarter of this year. It was prepared based on unchanged NBP interest rates, including the reference rate of 5.75%, taking into account data available until October 23, 2023.
Consumer inflation will – according to the central projection path – amount to 11.4%. in 2023, 4.6 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent in 2025 (compared to 11.9%, 5.2% and 3.6% for these years, respectively, in the July projection).
Inflation in Poland. The NBP report mentions the elections
“Future economic activity and the path of CPI inflation in Poland depend largely on the extent of the disruptions in the functioning of the world economy caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East,” read we in the NBP report. .
In addition to external conditions, an important source of projection risk – according to the authors of the projection – is the form of fiscal policy pursued after the parliamentary elections in Poland. “The balance of uncertainty factors indicates a broadly symmetric distribution of risks to GDP dynamics and an asymmetry of upside risks to CPI inflation,” the report wrote.
The central bank assumes that inflation in the Polish economic environment will continue to decline over the projection horizon as disruptions in global supply chains continue to fade, but the pace of decline will slow due to the expected increase in energy price growth.
“The projection period assumed that government support consisting of limiting the increase in electricity prices for sensitive entities will be gradually phased out in the coming years, and in the case of gas prices it will only last until the end of this year apply. due to a significant drop in the prices of this commodity,” it was explained.
Source: Do Rzeczy
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