GDP increased by 0.4 percent. y/y in the third quarter of 2023 according to preliminary estimate, consensus: +0.3 percent – informs the Central Bureau of Statistics.
Gross domestic product (constant average annual prices of the previous year, not seasonally adjusted) increased by 0.4%. y/y in Q3 2023 versus 0.6 percent year-on-year decline in the previous quarter, the Central Bureau of Statistics (GUS) reported in a quick estimate of this data.
“According to the preliminary estimate, seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter of 2023, compared to an increase of 4.1% in the same period of 2022.” – we read in the announcement.
The market consensus for the second quarter was 0.3%. growth on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
A slight increase in GDP
“In the third quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP (in constant prices with the reference year 2015) increased by 1.4% in real terms compared to the previous quarter and was 0.5% higher than last year.” – we read on.
The Central Bureau of Statistics also reported that seasonally adjusted growth in the second quarter of 2023 was 0.3%. q/q – according to data published on October 23 this year, a decline of 1.4% was recorded during this period. q/q; on an annual basis: the seasonally adjusted GDP in the second quarter of this year. decreased by 0.3 percent – compared to a 1.1 percent decline from this approach according to data from October 23. The Bureau has also made seasonally adjusted adjustments for the remaining quarters of 2021-2023.
The data are provisional and subject to revision, in line with the revision policy applied in the quarterly national accounts, at the time of preparing the first regular estimate of GDP for the third quarter of 2023, which will be published on November 30. , 2023, it was also stated.
Inflation in the coming years
The National Bank of Poland has published the November inflation projection, covering the period from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The starting point of the projection is the third quarter of this year. It was prepared based on unchanged NBP interest rates, including the reference rate of 5.75%, taking into account data available until October 23, 2023.
Consumer inflation will – according to the central projection path – amount to 11.4%. in 2023, 4.6 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent in 2025 (compared to 11.9%, 5.2% and 3.6% for these years, respectively, in the July projection).
Source: Do Rzeczy
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
