The Central Bureau of Statistics has released the latest inflation data

Inflation in October was 6.6%. This is more than estimated in the so-called speed reading.

Inflation is falling – this is evident from the latest data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. In September the score was 8.2 percent. Now it is 6.6 percent. This is more than 9.1 percentage points more. then adopted by the so-called speed reading.

The prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks increased by 8 percent, alcoholic drinks and tobacco products by 10.1 percent, and the use of apartments or houses and energy carriers by 8.3 percent. The prices of communications, education, restaurants and hotels have also increased.

One of the largest increases was recorded in the ‘thermal energy’ category. Here the increase was 24.1%. Electricity prices rose by 19.5% and gas prices by 15.2%.

NBP predictions

The National Bank of Poland has published the November inflation projection, covering the period from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The starting point of the projection is the third quarter of this year. It was prepared based on unchanged NBP interest rates, including the reference rate of 5.75%, taking into account data available until October 23, 2023.

Consumer inflation will – according to the central projection path – amount to 11.4%. in 2023, 4.6 percent in 2024 and 3.7 percent in 2025 (compared to 11.9%, 5.2% and 3.6% for these years, respectively, in the July projection).

“Future economic activity and the path of CPI inflation in Poland depend largely on the extent of the disruptions in the functioning of the world economy caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East,” read we in the NBP report. .

In addition to external conditions, an important source of projection risk – according to the authors of the projection – is the form of fiscal policy pursued after the parliamentary elections in Poland. “The balance of uncertainty factors indicates a broadly symmetric distribution of risks to GDP dynamics and an asymmetry of upside risks to CPI inflation,” the report wrote.

The central bank assumes that inflation in the Polish economic environment will continue to decline over the projection horizon as disruptions in global supply chains continue to fade, but the pace of decline will slow due to the expected increase in energy price growth.

Source: Do Rzeczy

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