Inegi expects private consumption to contract in October

According to analysts, private consumption in the domestic market in October decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous month. National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).

On the contrary, the corresponding indicator assessed that spent surveys conducted by companies, families and individuals in Mexico showed year-over-year and seasonally adjusted increases of 3.7% in September and 3.8% in October.

He Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) make estimates on Monthly indicator of private consumption (IMCP)which, in turn, measures the dynamics of household expenditures on consumer goods and services of both national and imported origin.

Although the IMCP is published approximately nine weeks after the reference month, the IOCP offers a first estimate two weeks after the end of the specified period and a second, more accurate estimate six weeks after the close.

It should be remembered that inflation overall slowed in June to 5.06% year on year. The rate continued to decline in recent months until it stood at 4.26% in October, when it hit its lowest level since February 2021, after rising sharply last year to a record high in more than two decades.

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Inflation underlying, Considered the best metric for measuring price path because it excludes high-volatility products, it fell for the eighteenth consecutive week to 5.50%, its lowest level since November 2021.

At the same time in August Bank of Mexico (Banxico) decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at a historic high of 11.25% for the fourth time in a row, citing a challenging and uncertain inflation outlook, and delayed convergence with the 3% target until the second quarter of 2025.