Are there more retirees than workers in Italy? At the national level, not yet for now, but there are regions and cities where the transition is already taking place. Except for the most virtuous regions, which are especially concentrated in the North, the number of pensions paid in the South exceeds the number of people employed. According to 2022 data, there are 22,772,000 pensioners and 23,099,000 workers in the country, but in all regions of the South the balance is negative: 7,209,000 pensions against 6,115,000 salaries. An alarming fact revealed in a study by Mestre’s CGIA emphasizes that this situation is the result of many interconnected factors, from the birth rate to the aging of the population and the phenomenon of irregular workers.
Regions where retirees are more than workers
In the list of virtuous regions, Lombardy ranks first with a positive balance of 733 thousand, followed by Veneto (+342 thousand) and Lazio (+310 thousand). Also in the “green” group, the column turns red, starting from Emilia Romagna (+208 thousand), Tuscany (+137 thousand) and Trentino Alto Adige (+132 thousand), Marche and Molise (-14 thousand and -20 thousand). It will reach the peaks represented by Sicily (-303 thousand), Puglia (-227 thousand) and Calabria (-226 thousand).
The ranking also reflects the same trend. Milan, Rome Brescia the most virtuous facts. However, Messina, Naples and Lecce are the most unstable. At the state level in 2022, Italy’s most productive regional reality was Milan (the balance is given by the +342 thousand difference between the number of retirees and the number of working people). It is followed by Rome (+326 thousand), Brescia (+107 thousand), Bergamo (+90 thousand), Bolzano (+87 thousand), Verona (+86 thousand) and Florence (+77 thousand). There are also positive cases, such as the southern cities of Cagliari (+10 thousand) and Ragusa (+9 thousand), but these are quite isolated cases. However, the largest imbalances were recorded in Palermo (-74 thousand), Reggio Calabria (-85 thousand), Messina (-87 thousand), Naples (-92 thousand) and Lecce (-97 thousand).
Solutions and possible repercussions
This phenomenon is constantly growing and there is a risk of fewer taxpayers and more people receiving pensions. Of course, a “miracle” cannot happen overnight; on the contrary, such a process can be reversed in the medium and long term. To do this, it is necessary to expand the employment base and bring to light a large part of the “invisible” workers in the country. According to the latest Istat data, we are talking about “illegal” workers, whose number reaches 3 million, including factories, agricultural areas and houses. Other viable “moves” would be to encourage women to enter the labor market and strengthen policies that encourage demographic growth, given that we are at the bottom of the list in terms of female employment rate in Europe (around 50%). as assistance to mothers and extended families.
It’s a U-turn that needs to be initiated quickly if we don’t want to see the collapse of social security and healthcare. As CGIA experts point out, between 2023 and 2027 the Italian labor market will need just under three million workers to replace people who will retire. In about 5 years, 12% of Italian workers will leave their jobs and entrepreneurs will face a large and forced “turnover”. In Italy, the working age population (15-64 years old) has decreased by over 755 thousand in the last 5 years, and the contraction will be 133 thousand in 2022 alone.
Moreover, as CGIA experts point out, a country with an increasingly elderly population may face serious problems balancing public finances in the coming decades; especially due to the increase in healthcare, retirement, pharmaceutical and personal care expenses. There are some sectors that may pay more for this reaction than others: these are the real estate market, transport, fashion and hospitality (HoReCa). The only people celebrating may be banking institutions that can capitalize on older people’s tendency to save.
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Source: Today IT
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
