Earthquakes are expensive and their effects spread across the state, even affecting unaffected areas. We don’t know, but in reality we inherited a mortgage of 1,500 billion euros, which we continue to pay. It all depends on the region and what is built on it: there are approximately 7 million buildings built to outdated standards and exposed to seismic risks, but we acted after tragedies, following the emergency rather than taking precautions. Superbonus, meanwhile, represents another missed opportunity: we spent a large amount of funds to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, but only managed to reach 3 percent of existing properties; This had significant repercussions on the state budget and made us forget what should not be forgotten: seismic risk.
You can’t see the costs, but they are there: we all pay. But both conditions can be “cured”; we must therefore intervene with a “Double Super Bonus”, as described by Stefano Pampanin, professor of construction techniques at the La Sapienza University of Rome. He explained how this happened in an interview with Today.it.
Cost of the earthquake: “mortgage” of 1,500 billion euros.
Earthquakes cause devastation and human casualties, with economic damage extending beyond the affected areas and affecting the entire state. Choosing to intervene only after tragedies means continuing to pay more interest on this “earthquake mortgage” that we all involuntarily take out: from Belice in 1968 to Marche and Emilia-Romagna passing through Irpinia. Look at the map below, based on estimates from the National Council of Engineers, the cost of devastating earthquakes in Italy is staggering.
With their direct and indirect consequences, devastating earthquakes have cost us 1,500 billion euros in the last 50 years. To give an idea, the latest budget laws are between 20 and 30 billion euros.
Stefano Pampanin told Today.it: “We now have the opportunity to get rid of these costs. We are now paying without doing anything. We have inadvertently taken out a mortgage: we pay interest for every billion euros we spend. The direct impact is the loss of reconstruction, displaced people and general damage “There are also indirect costs, social costs. We all pay this money.”
Pampanin explains: “Having an earthquake-proof mortgage is the most unfair thing in the world. On the contrary, an “Anti-Seismic Plan” would enrich us all.”
On the contrary, earthquakes are not uncommon for Italy. As can be seen from the map below, prepared by Today.it based on data from the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (Ingv), there were 80 earthquakes of magnitude 5 in Italy from 1985 to 2018. And unfortunately there will be others. But damage and costs can be avoided.
The solution, according to Professor Pampanin, is “an anti-seismic vaccine plan. Our instincts may tell us to use this money in another way. What if I tell you this if we don’t use it?” explains the professor from La Sapienza University. We may not have money anymore, don’t we have a future? You need a scientific culture to plan: not an annual or short-term plan like Superbonus, but a plan that spans 20-30 years. “If the plan is not long-term, I don’t try ‘no way’.”
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We know that we are still paying the bill for all past earthquakes and that there are more to come: How do we get rid of this “seismic credit” so that we no longer have to pay for post-earthquake reconstructions? First of all, we need to understand where and how we need to intervene. “We must bring together the competent ministries and link existing databases to comprehensively analyze the area and understand the real seismic risk, which is not only dependent on the map, but is given by the combination of the danger of the event and the vulnerability of the buildings”.
We are talking about more than 7 million buildings, and not just in the most dangerous areas. In fact, anti-seismic construction standards established in the 1970s have a before and after to consider, and so an older building in an area with medium-low seismic risk is at greater risk than a more modern building built in areas with a high earthquake risk it could be. high danger.
But what would it cost? “This anti-seismic vaccine prevents the disease, it is not a cure, because earthquakes cannot be eliminated. It does not even cost. But we are already paying the mortgage and we can reduce the price with these interventions.” Interventions will be combined with energy recharacterization
The estimated expenditure is at least 0.5-0.8% of GDP, i.e. around 16 billion euros by the State, in addition to contributions from the European Union between Pnrr and the Green Deal. Interventions against earthquakes will come together with interventions that will increase energy efficiency with an integrated approach. EU funds will be cut as follows: “If increasing energy efficiency by reducing fossil energy is a priority for Europe, we should also avoid repairing a building several times,” explains Pampanin. Consequently, Italian territory should have priority for intervention. at the European level”.
So what will the interventions be? For existing houses built before earthquake protection regulations of the 1970s, the solution is the exoskeleton, an external structure that will be “hooked” to the outside of the building, providing high resistance to earthquake shocks. not only deaths but also serious structural damage.
Moreover, the exoskeleton has the advantage of being relatively quick to install (about 9 months of work) and requiring no more intervention than regular replacement scaffolds. Thanks to the exoskeleton, it is possible to simultaneously apply solutions such as thermal coatings for the energy efficiency of the building.
“Anti-seismic as we know it is not anti-seismic,” Pampanin explains.
However, the operation also needs to include the newest buildings. According to Professor Pampanin, we should actually aim to use the best possible technology: “Legal standards allow us to save human lives, but we make do with the minimum. We call them earthquake-proof buildings, but then we have to spend 50% of the starting price to repair them.” “And it affects everyone. We discovered this after big earthquakes, especially the one in L’Aquila: rebuilding has crazy costs.”
The state will also contribute to the costs for new buildings that have not been built yet: “You make the intervention by law, but the cost difference of the seismic interventions is given to you by the state.”
Without earthquake prevention, 78 thousand people are displaced annually: map
There are already incentives for anti-seismic interventions such as Seismabonus, and similar operations can also be carried out with Superbonus 110. But as Professor Pampanin recalls, “In peacetime, no one prepares for war” and seismic interventions are no longer compared to the recharacterization of energy.
It may be a mistake to underestimate earthquakes, as we live in an area with relatively low seismic risk: “Those who are not concerned are mistaken as they may consider paying for the costs of these anti-seismic interventions for others who are more at risk: then the damage will affect everyone equally. We all pay the costs. National health “We pay each other’s money because we are part of a system, as in the system,” comments Pampanin.
After the initial mapping that launches the plan, response priorities are defined and the operational phase begins: “The ranking will be established on a risk scale from highest to lowest. Considering Covid, the issue is how to protect the population for the elderly and frail patients: vaccination should start with them. Climate change is making us rush , as if old buildings deteriorate faster,” Pampanin concludes.
Some regions are more affected by the economic damage of earthquakes than others. As can be seen from the maps below, taken from studies on seismic risk assessment in Italian territory developed by the national network of earthquake engineering laboratories (Reluis), costs are high even in regions with relatively low seismic hazard.
Social losses such as buildings that are unusable in the short and medium term, displaced people, victims and injuries are also added to economic losses. As shown in Table 1, it is estimated that in the event of an earthquake with existing Italian real estate, there will be an average of more than 78 thousand people displaced, 505 victims, more than 1,700 injuries and a risk of more than 1,700 injuries per year for the next 50 years. cost of approximately 2 billion euros. It is the seismic mortgage that attracts attention every year.
Professor Pampanin tells Today.it: “The goal is the safety of the citizen. You can even die in an earthquake, but this can be solved. The technical solution is there, we can all benefit from it from an economic perspective. At this historical moment, we need to put anti-seismic issues in the context of great interest in climate change and energy transition.” We can also add “.
“This plan will not only ensure a significant reduction in costs associated with both earthquakes and saved energy, but will also create a positive economic driver that will allow the measures to pay for themselves and eliminate the costs of earthquake-resistant mortgages in the long term”, explains La Sapienza professor Therefore, in the light of these data, the Superbonus looks like a missed opportunity with a waste of time and resources to obtain minimal benefits that delay the time for a real energy and anti-seismic revolution necessary for the outdated Italians. building legacy.
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Source: Today IT
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
