The World Bank warned on Tuesday that global growth will slow in 2024 for the third year in a row, leading to increased poverty and lower debt levels in many developing countries.
Burdened by the Covid-19 pandemic, Ukrainian war and resulting spikes in inflation and interest rates around the world, the first half of the 2020s looks set to be the worst in 30 years, he added.
According to the latest World Bank forecasts, global GDP is likely to grow 2.4% this year. World Economic Outlook Report. This figure contrasts with 2.6% in 2023, 3% in 2022 and 6.2% in 2021, when there was a rebound at the end of the pandemic.
This will make economic growth weaker in the 2020-2024 period than in the years leading up to the crisis. global financial crisis 2008-2009, Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and recession of the early 2000s, Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist The World Bank.
Barring the pandemic contraction in 2020, growth this year would be the weakest since the 2009 global financial crisis, the development lender said.
The global growth forecast for 2025 is slightly higher at 2.7%, but was downgraded from the June forecast of 3% due to an expected slowdown in advanced economies.
The World Bank’s goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030 now seems unattainable because slowdown in economic activity due to geopolitical conflicts.
“Without a major course correction, the 2020s will go down in history as a decade of missed opportunities,” Indermeet Gill, chief economist at the World Bank Group, said in a statement.
“He short term growth will remain weak, leaving many developing countries – especially the poorest – trapped with huge levels of debt and limited access to food for almost one in three people,” he added.
This year’s bleak outlook comes as global growth for 2023 will exceed June forecasts by 0.5 percentage points, thanks to good results American economydriven by high consumer spending.
According to the World Bank, the US economy will grow by 2.5% in 2023, up 1.4 percentage points from the June estimate. Growth is expected to slow to 1.6% this year as lockdown measures money-credit policy slows activity as savings dwindle, but says the figure is double its June estimate.
The eurozone’s outlook is significantly bleaker, with growth forecast for this year at 0.7% after high energy prices led to growth of just 0.4% in 2023. Tighter lending conditions lowered the region’s 2024 forecast by 0.6 percentage points from the bank’s June forecast.
China is also contributing world perspectivesas its growth will slow to the 4.5% expected in 2024. That’s the slowest growth in more than three decades, not counting the pandemic-driven 2020 and 2022.
The forecast has been cut 0.1 percentage point since June, reflecting weakness consumer spending amid ongoing turmoil in the property market, with growth expected to slow further to 4.3% in 2025.
Emerging market and developing economies as a whole are expected to grow 3.9% this year, lower than 4% in 2023 and one percentage point below their average in the 2010s.
This pace is not enough to lift growing populations out of poverty, and the World Bank says that by the end of 2024, people in one in four developing countries and 40% of low-income countries will be poorer than they were in 2019. , before the pandemic.
Reuters
Source: Aristegui Noticias
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
