Increases in wholesale fuel prices are an announcement of price changes at stations in the coming days, as a result of which average prices of gasoline and oil in the country could increase by 5 to 10 groszy per liter compared to current levels, according to a market commentary by BM Reflex analysts.
For the first time since mid-November last year, price increases for gas and diesel returned to stations. Although the average price level still seems stable, fuel prices increased to 5-7 groszy per liter at some stations. These increases are an announcement of price changes in the coming days at other stations, which could increase average prices of gasoline and oil in the country by 5 to 10 groszy per liter compared to current levels – estimates BM Reflex.
Risk of price increases
Currently the average prices at stations are as follows: unleaded petrol PLN 95 – PLN 6.24/l (+1 grosz/l during the week), unleaded petrol PLN 98 – PLN 6.79/l (+1 grosz/l) , diesel oil PLN 6.40/l (bz), LPG – PLN 2.88/l (-1 grosz/l).
The risk of price increases will be greater the higher the price of wholesale fuels. So far, wholesale prices of Pb95 gasoline have increased by 14 gross per liter gross, and those of diesel oil by almost 16 gross per liter. The largest price increase occurred for Pb98 gasoline, namely 30 groszy per liter. The magnitude of the current increase in wholesale prices is the result of more expensive crude oil and finished fuels and the simultaneous weakening of the Polish zloty against the USD, analysts say.
What about crude oil?
Oil prices continue to consolidate. On Friday morning, prices for the March series of Brent crude oil contracts remained around USD 79/barrel, which is about USD 0.9/barrel higher than a week ago. The geopolitical risk remains supportive for the market.
So far in January, India has not exported diesel to Europe due to the increased risk of transport through the Red Sea. US refineries will begin major maintenance outages in February. After the outbreak of war in Ukraine, both the US and India significantly increased diesel supplies to Europe. According to S&P Global estimates, the share of diesel from the US and India in the structure of total European imports (estimated at 1.3 million barrels per day) in the period September-October 2023 was 8% and 10% respectively.
OPEC predicts optimistically
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says it is prepared to act in the event of a potential supply crisis due to transport problems through the Red Sea. However, the IEA emphasizes that on the supply side, the oil market appears to be well supplied in 2024. The IEA expects global crude oil consumption to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day this year and crude oil processing in global refineries to reach a record 83.3 million barrels per day, adding 0.8 million barrels per day is more than in the last record year 2018.
The OPEC forecasts are again the most optimistic. The cartel expects global oil consumption to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day this year and 1.8 million barrels per day next year. The expected growth rate for 2024 is more than 1 million blb/d higher than, for example, the predictions of the American EIA or IEA. OPEC expects oil demand to grow continuously (albeit at a much slower pace) until 2045, reaching 116 million barrels per day, compared to 102.1 million barrels per day in 2023.
Source: Do Rzeczy
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
