The return of price increases at stations. “Reversal of Direction”

The rise in crude oil prices could result in a return to price increases at gas stations – according to market commentary from BM Reflex analysts.

“A reversal in the direction of price changes in the domestic wholesale market mid-week due to the increase in crude oil prices could result in a return of price increases at gas stations,” we read in the BM Reflex press release.

In the case of petrol, average prices in the country could increase by 3-5 gr/l, and diesel oil by 7-10 gr/l.

The situation at gas stations

The deeper cuts in wholesale fuel prices in the first half of last week affected the retail situation. In a short time, wholesale fuel prices fell by 7 to 9 groszy per liter, which was enough to reduce fuel prices at some stations, especially those where fuel was received from cheaper supplies. At some stations, prices remained unchanged or increased. This varied situation at stations across the country caused average fuel prices to change slightly this week compared to last week’s levels.

Currently we pay on average for fuel: unleaded petrol PLN 95 – PLN 6.40/l (-1 gr/l during the week), unleaded petrol PLN 98 – PLN 6.94/l (+1 gr/l), diesel oil – PLN 6.58 PLN/l (-1 grosz/l), LPG – PLN 2.90/l (-1 grosz/l).

Despite the price increases at gas stations in January, fuel costs remain lower than last year. We pay respectively 28 and 42 gr/l less for 95 and 98 petrol, 89 gr/l less for diesel and 32 gr/l less for LPG than a year ago.

Rise in oil prices

Prices of the April series of Brent crude oil contracts rose to the USD 82/bbl area on Friday morning. During the week, the price of Brent crude oil rose by more than USD 4/barrel. Crude oil prices from Russia’s Urals FOB Rotterdam rose to USD 68.80/bbl. In the period from February 1 to 8, diesel prices on the ARA market increased by approximately USD 30/t (PLN 120/m3), while gasoline prices increased by USD 29/t (PLN 103/m3).

“There is a premium for geopolitical risks in the prices. The market does not seem to believe in the rapid stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, both in terms of the war between Israel and Hamas and the safety of maritime transport through the Red Sea.” “Expectations are also growing for an extension of the OPEC+ measures introduced at the beginning of the year, voluntary production cuts on a total scale of 2.2 million barrels per day. Initially, voluntary production cuts would apply until the end of March,” according to the analysis.

The US EIA expects the average price of Brent crude oil to reach USD 82.42/barrel this year, and – USD 79.48/barrel next year.

The International Energy Agency estimates that India will become the source of the world’s largest increase in oil consumption by 2030. According to IEA data, India imported 4.6 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2023. According to the IEA, net crude oil imports are expected to increase to 5.8 million barrels per day by 2030.

Source: Do Rzeczy