Super Bubbles The Super Bonus costs us almost 2 thousand euros per person: the bubble bursts, 11 thousand companies disappear. The latest data from the Bank of Italy refutes a common theory: construction bonuses have not amortized themselves. The calculation also includes a “total loss” of 45 billion. And today we only risk carrying the debris of the explosion in construction companies (in addition to non-total numbers)

Super Bonus reveals its true cost: The bubble is ready to burst, even though its effects on the economy have been visible for some time. As the European Commission launches a procedure for excessive deficits, new data confirms fears linked to well-known subsidies for home renovations and the construction bonus system in general. The net cost of bonuses for Bankitalia is 100 billion euros. For now, they earn around 1,700 euros each. After all, they did not pay for themselves, as Giuseppe Conte said: for every point of GDP there were three expenditures. The economic effects have been reaffirmed by the Parliamentary Budget Office, and in the meantime thousands of companies are closing: this means that the situation may get worse.

How much did the Superbonus actually cost the state: New data from Bank of Italy

In two years, building bonuses (including image bonuses and Super bonuses) cost the State €170 billion. According to Enea’s latest data, 122.7 billion of these are related to Superbonus. The idea that these renovations would pay for themselves has always been fashionable among its supporters, such as Giuseppe Conte, who conceived the measure with the 5 Star Movement.

Giuseppe Conte shows a sign showing the cost of the Superbonus

A new study by the Bank of Italy sees the situation differently: “The benefits provided in terms of added value to the economy as a whole were lower than the costs incurred for the benefits.” This means that measures have been put in place. The work initiated in the second half of 2020 “to revitalize the construction sector with targeted investments” actually contributed to the economic recovery in the post-pandemic period, pushing GDP upwards.

The problem is that spending far exceeds the growth produced. According to economists’ estimates, in the two-year period 2021-23, external bonuses and super bonuses contributed between 2.6 and 3.4 percentage points to GDP, that is, between 20 and 25 percent, out of a total growth of 13.5 percentage points. But if we compare these benefits to the $170 billion in total spending, each point gained in GDP costs three. This means that the net cost of Super Bonuses and front bonuses is €100 billion, around €1,700 each. Conte said it would be 88.

Problems arose after the initial “fire”: in 2023, as we read in the latest annual report, “the deficit was higher than the 5.3 percent expected in Nadef’s forecasts last September, primarily due to the effects of the Superbonus”. The figures from the Parliamentary Budget Office in Parliament led to the initiation of infringement proceedings against Italy by the EU Commission. But these problems will still persist due to the amount of tax credits that will be thrown away, so “unexpected impacts cannot be ruled out in light of what has happened in previous years.”

The “dead weight” of 45 billion was distributed

Wasted investments have a significant share in Superbonus spending. ”It is estimated that approximately a quarter of the expenditure on subsidized investments (over 45 billion) would be realized even in the absence of incentives. building bonuses.

38 million euros for a single flat: The latest craze of Superbonus

In other words, a quarter of the total spend will be considered a “total loss”, as defined by Bankitalia researchers. This was because everyone had access to measurement. The latest example came with the Pnrr funds allocated to construction bonuses: 13.7 billion, half of which was used for the construction of 46,922 houses. The rest went to apartments; A record intervention worth 38 million Euros was made for a building in the town of Mezzana, with a population of 890 in the province of Trento.

Companies born and dying with Superbonus: a map of the crisis

After the initial burst, the Superbonus bubble burst in the very sector that initially drove the economy. Nearly 11,000 construction companies were closed. They launched the business at the end of 2020 and closed between 2022 and 2023. As can be seen from the chart below from, this trend is clearly visible over time, starting with the processing of an InfoCamere on data from the Business Register.

Since the birth of Superbonus, in mid-2020, as the months went by, more and more companies went bankrupt. The trend seen in the chart is not random: the number of companies closed at the end of 2022 exceeded 1,700, and then reached over 3,000 exits at the beginning of 2023: these are precisely the months when the regulations on companies conducting business become even more intense. tight . There were 1,171 in Lazio alone, 802 of which were in Rome. Closures will continue until we reach 10,924 terminations in 2023. Businesses that are born and die with Superbonus.

Source: Today IT