Mexico will have losses in money transfers up to 13,000 million peso at Trump’s measures

A Deportation And Possible tax 10% before the supply of money from the United States of the Presidential Administration Donald Trump will be brought loss to 13,000 million dollars In the money transfers that Mexico receives per year, researchers from the University of Guadalahara warned.

“We could not expect 100% deportation, but think about 20% (without documented migrants), which is quite realistic, but this mainly meant about 13,000 million dollars a year that can be lost from this situation with this situation with this situation mass deportation ” – – – – – – – – – – this is massive,” he said Efe Academician Antonio Ruis Porrars.

The Coordinator of the Doctor of Sciences on Economic Research of the University of Guadalahahara warned about Effects To short term In the microeconomics of Micro and Mexican macroeconomics.

“Last year, we had 3.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) money transfers, if these deportation expectations were fulfilled, taxes would be fulfilled, money transfers can be reduced to 2.6% or, possibly less, this It would be very strong in terms of resources. They will stop arriving at Mexico, ”he added.

A decrease in the supply of money will affect the States and communities more depends on this income as Chiapas Where money transfers They represent 15% of state GDPAnd JalliscoThe third largest receiver throughout the country.

Mexican solidarity

According to him Bank MexicoIn 2023, Mexicans were sent abroad 63 318 million dollarsWhile until November 2024, 59,517 million dollars were registered over the past year, and the expected record of almost $ 65,000 million over the past year.

President Trump began Mass deportations of migrants without documentsOf which almost half of Mexico, through raids in the main cities and special observation on the border, in addition to the warning about a rate of 10% before the supply of money from the US territory to any country.

Despite this, Clement Ernandes Rodriguez, an academician of the Department of Economics of the Administrative Campus of Economic Sciences of the University of Guadalahahar, said that, although although The growth of money transfers will decreaseIt is expected that the flows will not become negative.

The economist is based on his position on Mexican culture belonging Job And in the depreciation that Peso has suffered against the dollar over the past six months, after the electoral triumph of President Claudia Sheinbaum in June.

“Those who stayed there will be loaded more. Family loyalty is very high if there were three relatives, and they will return, they will take care of what these three had done. The weight was cheaper in favor of them, so they need less dollars to cover what the family needs, ”he said.

Negotiate

A Bank BBVA report This indicates that in 2024, money transfers had several months with aminodist drops: in March with -3.4%, May (-1%), July (-1.3%), September (-4.6% ) and October (-1.6%).

At least in 2025 it is Gradual decrease The Mexico government will be deepened and forced to take measures such as diversification of markets or the choice of a diplomatic route, when an agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) will be revised, said Ruis Porras.

“When you think, it is possible, it is possible to make some adjustments to our relations (with the United States), taking into account the fact that next year, in 2026, we have a revision of T-MEC, perhaps money transfers is a topic that should To enter this discussion, ”he said.

Ernandes Rodriguez expected that Mexican government HE I would borrow Decide Social programs For expatrants and for possible consequences that will have a decrease in income for families.

“The federal government resorts to duty And you will solve any card (program) Welfare This is necessary for RepatriatedAnd it will do it quickly, the detail will be about generation Who will have to Pay this debtHe concluded.
Efe

Source: Aristegui Noticias

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