Trump analysis brings tasks for Canada, Mexico and China. What will happen to the global economy (and the Italian economy)? The proportions threatened by the US President in the election campaign entered into force. Measures for European products can also be triggered. ‘Waterfall’ effect on the economy of our country should not be ignored

One day awaited by Donald Trump came: February 1 today, tasks in Mexico, Canada and China come into force.

Trump decided to give 25 percent for Mexico and Canada and 10 percent for Chinese products. The next passage, according to the filters from the White House, may be a certain ratio on the European Union products for the commercial deficit between the two blocks. With the introduction of these measures, commercial and economic uprisings are envisaged in supply chains with discomfort from energy to cars. And the fear of increase in inflation sends all the cuts in the European Central Bank rates to the attic. Just a few days ago, the ECB carried out a fifth consecutive scissors, which brought the ratio to 2.75 percent to deposits.

Because Trump brought tasks against Mexico, Canada and China

Let’s go in order. The two official motivations, where the President decided to shoot the main commercial partners of the US, are the boundaries and phenomenal that causes thousands of victims in the country, 80 times stronger than the morphine.

US President, Canada and Mexican neighbors, 25 percent of the task, the United States of the borders of the illegal migration and fentanyl flow underlined the failures. He also accused of playing a role in the production of the drug by applying a 10 percent ratio for imports from China, the world’s second largest economy. The popular republic is the main producer of one of the synthetics that make up the new “chemical gold” in which Mexican drug trafficking built an empire. The contrast of OPPIOID traffic has been at the center of the dialogue between the US and China in recent years, because for a while, Washington’s social and economic crisis has been suspected of illegal smuggling from Beijing foods. United States.

Trump left the opportunity to not assign task to petroleum products, because as in the case of Canada, which provides most of the eastern coast of the United States, the response will be very difficult and will affect the expenditures of Americans. . The US is the largest oil manufacturer in the world, but it is designed to use a mixture of different products to convert oil into gas and diesel. Almost 60 percent of the oil imports of the United States came from Canada; 7 percent comes from Mexico. Many refinery is designed to treat this product mixture only and cannot easily adapt to new oil resources without risking commercial reflections. Soon, an additional narrow may seem narrow, but Trump is now also taking into account the decline in profit margins in the fourth quarter of two of the largest American oil companies.

What about Trump’s tasks? Canada and Mexican economies will certainly take a major blow to productive, industrial and commercial logistics as a smaller and stronger dependent on this. Canada and Mexico are among the main suppliers of agricultural products and steel (especially Canada) for the United States with a total of tens of billions of dollars of dollars from each country. According to those reported by S&P Global Mobility, considering that light vehicles imports from Canada and Mexico in 2024 represented 22 percent of all vehicles sold in the USA, tasks will have a significant impact on the automotive industry and electric vehicles.

Mexico and Canada tried to avoid conflict, explaining what they are doing to strengthen the controls on the borders of the new administration and involve the flow of illegal immigrants to the United States. However, with the introduction of 25 percent tasks, Canada and Mexico are ready to respond to Trump and that they raised the spectrum of a conflict on the rise. China also implied that the US economy, such as agricultural products (corn, pork, soybean beans), cars and technology in the USA, could intervene in counter -measures affecting various strategic sectors. A possible sector that China will take narrow is rare lands where the popular republic is one of the main global suppliers. These valuable materials are fundamental for the production of semiconductors, batteries and electronic devices. And a Chinese restriction in this area can cause consistent damage to the American industry.

The impact of the economy of the United States

Donald Trump admitted that the decision to assign tasks in Canada, Mexico and China and perhaps the European Union could create “short -term problems” to the US. “But the Americans will understand,” he assured.

The direct impact of American duties on Canada, Mexico and China will mainly on the final consumers of the US. We start from the assumption that the tasks are tax on foreign products, so US companies will have to pay more goods from sanctioned countries. In practice, the rate is not physically paid by the national community, which is important, not from the foreigner who exports. Therefore, companies may decide to decide to fall with higher retail prices and tax burden to consumers in order not to harm. Alternatively, foreign exporters may be forced to reduce their wholesale prices to keep their customers in the US for an equal value.

All scenarios, including those dating back to the long term, provide a decrease in the American GDP, as after the commercial war with China during his previous mission. According to predictions Peterson International Institute of EconomicsThe new tasks recommended by Trump will reduce the income of Americans with more impact on the poorest groups. According to thought -tank estimates, a typical family with mid -income will lose about $ 1,700 per year. Other direct results for the US economy are the scarcity of products and possible work losses.

Dark Periods for Italy

Trump threatened to hit the European Union. Brussels reiterates that the American President is ready to defend European interests in the face of the threat of bringing tasks against EU products. The effect of “waterfall”, for example, should not underestimate that this measure may be on the Italian economy, considering that the impact of tasks on fragile economies such as German may be absolutely connected to the Italians. The US, the second target market for Italy’s exports, is the seventh supplier of the USA.

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According to Istat data processed by Adnkronos, Italian exports to the US in 2024 were equal to 68.2 billion euros (equal to 10.7 percent of exports), equal to 29, 3 billion euros (equal to 4.6 percent of the total), 38, 38 With 9 billion euros positive balance. In 2023, exports to non -Italy countries equal to 301.8 billion euros with an increase of 2.1 percent compared to the previous year, while imports were equal to 256.2 billion and 20.3 percent with a positive balance of 45.6 billion euros. In general, the country’s exports reached 626 billion in the same year. Italy’s exports to the United States represent 10.7 percent of the total, and according to Prometeia estimates, new tasks can set additional costs between 4 and 7 billion euros for Italy.

The possible release of tasks on European products will certainly have negative repercussions on the tendency of the Italian economy, not only because it will limit access to the American market, but also to weaken the main output markets, including other European countries. .


Source: Today IT

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