The Government of the President of Mexico, Claudia Shainbaum, He updated his assessment of economic growth by 2025 The range is 1.5 % and 2.3 %, For “uncertainty in relation to the commercial policy of the United States”, the day before US President Donald Trump announced the new round of tariffs.
” The division of revision for the height of 2025 reacts to less dynamism In residential investments and perseverance of shocks of proposal from the end of last year. It also affects business caution in the face of uncertainty in relation to US commercial policy, ”the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) said in a statement.
In November last year, the official budget for 2025, the first year of the president, Claudia Shainbaum, SE based on growth from 2% to 3% gross domestic product (GDP).
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Forecasts of the Mexican Treasury contrast with organizations such as the organization of cooperation and development (OECD) and private consultants who warned that the Mexican economy may encounter a recession this year as The consequence of a commercial war unleashed by Washington.
In accordance with “General abysses of economic policy 2026” In 2025 and 2026, “Mexico will realize a careful fiscal convergence to A slight deficiency of maintaining public debt at a sustainable level And strengthen confidence in financial policy. “
In a document that provides a year after year lThe Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) For the Mexican Congress, it was noted that in 2025 and 2026 the Mexican economy would support the “positive growth trajectory due to solid internal demand” and the consumption of households and state and private investments “to remain the main GDP engines”.
However, and, despite the “indefinite external environment” for global commercial tension and geopolitical conflicts, he emphasized this. ”Mexico has a more diversified economy and a reliable domestic market, Which improves its reaction to international clashes. “
It was also noted that private consumption “will be strengthened by the creation of jobsThe growth of wages and more access to loans ”, while the social programs of the Mexican government“ will continue to raise houses and strengthen their purchasing power. “
Reasonable and responsible fiscal policy
The SHCP document said that the fiscal policy will follow “Route for reasonable and responsible standardization in 2025 and 2026, in order to maintain sustainable debt and strengthen confidence in the country’s macroeconomic stability. “
By 2025, according to him, it is expected that the financial requirements of the public sector (RFSP) are located at the level of 3.9 to 4 % of GDP, And public debt will remain at stable levels, about 52.3 % of GDP.
While by 2026, lRFSP is estimated from 3.2 to 3.5 % GDP, lOr this will continue to continue with a descending debt trajectory against a comparable economy.
“The income strategy will support Great efficiency of collecting and using digital technologies. Meanwhile, state expenses will be concentrated on social programs and investments in infrastructure and energy transition, ”Hasinda said.
He also put forward a call that financing in the public sector would place priorities in local currency debt at a fixed and long -term rate, which reduces the effects of international financial volatility and by 2026 “lower pressure on the financial costs of the debt, thanks to the global environment of the lower rate and the lower level of indication in Mexico”.
Source: Aristegui Noticias
Roy Brown is a renowned economist and author at The Nation View. He has a deep understanding of the global economy and its intricacies. He writes about a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, international trade, and labor markets.
