The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) Estimated 2022/2023 wheat campaign At the country level, 500,000 hectares will be reduced to 6.35 million hectares. Meanwhile, it forecasts 19 million tonnes of production, down from 22.1 million tonnes in the previous cycle.

This situation will be created against the background of very good grain prices, which were intensified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [ambos países representan casi el 30% del comercio global]. Surface shrinkage occurs in the scenario in areas that require moisture for planting, while there is an expectation of growth on the other hand in barley. Wheat is key not only to turnover in the soil, but also as a generator of foreign exchange: this year, the last crop of grain has already surpassed $ 3.4 billion in foreign sales.

According to the unit, Cordoba will stop cultivating about 250,000 hectares in this campaign, which will increase from 1.35 to 1.1 million hectares. Buenos Aires will fall on 140,000 hectares, from 2.69 to 2.55 million hectares.

“The drop will be 5% and in general, this hectare will go to barley; There may be more. “In the wheat bastion, southwest (southwest of Buenos Aires), it is generally agreed that wheat is falling by 5 to 10 percent, with barley growing by about 7 to 8 percent,” he said.

As he points out, technology will also fall there “because of the poor input / output ratio.” Phosphorus use will be reduced by “15 to 20% in monoammonium in soils with more than 10 ppm of brass phosphorus”. In the case of urea the decrease will be from 10 to 28%.

As for Santa Fe, which set a wheat record of 1.32 million hectares last year, the area will be reduced by 90,000 hectares.

In this context, in addition to high costs and despite good prices, climatic conditions will influence the decision to harvest.

“The difference is most noticeable in Cordoba, which starts sowing wheat throughout the province at a dry and very dry level. Conditions there are even worse than in 2020, the year of the Cordovan wheat disaster: the provincial average was only 15 kW / ha. It may happen that the campaign goes through 2021 and there are rain events that improve the scenario and, consequently, the planting intention, ”the Rosario Stock Exchange said.

“But due to the lack of rain forecast until May 20, the current conditions in Nina and the possibility of a third event, the course that wheat passed in 2020 is not ruled out. The first assessment of wheat sowing intentions reflects that the producer does not think. “I want to stop wheat production, but there are limitations: the first is climate and will lead to problems with high costs and, consequently, less fertilizer than is offered.” He added.

Meanwhile, in a report, the National Ministry of Agriculture indicated that, according to its Agricultural Risk Service (ORA), “encouraging” weather conditions are expected for grain sowing.

Official forecast

“Profiles typically have adequate water filling in most parts of Buenos Aires and Mesopotamia, and climate-neutral behavior is forecast for the coming months. This provides an encouraging prospect for wheat sowing (2022/23 campaign). ” Agriculture noted.

He clarified that “if we compare the current state of humidity of the soil-vegetation system with last year, at the beginning of the previous campaign the state of humidity was not only low, but, in turn, was more unequal in excess. And lost. “

“The ORA water balance model – measured in early May – shows that there is good water availability for planting at the beginning of both campaigns. In 2021, adequate reserves prevailed in the central part of the country, northeast of La Pampa and southeast of Buenos Aires. While in 2022 better reserves will be observed throughout the central and southern part of the province of Buenos Aires. Noticed.

For its part, the Rosario Stock Exchange pointed out that with regard to soil moisture reserves, “The center, south and especially west, starts better in Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos than a year ago.”

“But in the rest of Argentina, the wheat conditions in the first meter of the profile are clearly low. The reason for this is in April last year, which left very heavy rains. Some remember the water bombing that took place between Santa Fe and Cordoba, accumulating more than 250 mm: 230 mm in Marco Juarez, 260 mm in Monte de Oca. “Comparing the monthly accumulated figures for April 2021, there are differences between the 2022 figures for the Pampas region, which range from 50 to 150 mm,” he added.