Starting planting in the United States is far from ideal. Due to excess moisture or cold temperatures, which are not suitable for good emergence and subsequent harvesting, delays are known at this time of season. While U.S. growers have enormous potential to plant large numbers of acres in a very short period of time (it is estimated that their capacity can reach 20 million acres per week under ideal conditions), this would not happen now.

In this regard, recent data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) show this As of May 8, only 22% of the corn area had been cultivated, compared with slightly more than 10% in the case of soybeans. So we have a perspective, the average 5 year average for this date shows implantation for 50% for feed and 24% for oil seed.

According to Chicago “merchants” and the preliminary criteria of agronomists, By May 10, 50% of the corn should be planted, which is expected to be planted. This is the “data” that any operator observes because he knows that every day that passes since that date is inversely proportional to the potentially high yields.

A similar situation was observed in the 2019/2020 cycle. The planting data for this season was very similar to this year for both corn and soybeans. The end result was that soybean production increased from 112.9 million tonnes in the U.S., according to the first estimate, to 96.7 million in the last report. In the case of corn, production declines increased from almost 382 to 346 million. While there is still a long way to go and, as mentioned above, farmers have great planting potential, it is important to pay attention in the coming weeks to be able to evaluate how this first crop custom in the United States went.

But, of course, this is not another year or a normal production cycle. We have excellent nominal prices to be able to do good business, but the increase in operating costs not only terribly “strengthens” them, but also makes them more vulnerable to possible margins due to weather problems or low prices. . Then, the weather becomes more crucial than usual this year.

Without a large increase in area, and with this delay in the United States, we insist on good commercial practice to be able to overcome the various vicissitudes that this 2022/2023 season will undoubtedly leave us. .

In this regard, we can not rule out – on the other side of the balance sheet – either the impact of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve or the possible economic problems in China caused by an iron-laden and incomprehensible lockdown by Covid.

Finally, by the time this column is published, we will already be aware of the USDA’s new monthly report figures, this time for the first time in the 2022/2023 cycle. Be careful.

The author is a partner of Nóvitas