In most of the national area, autumn rains brought moisture to the profiles after the dry summer weather. However, forward In the near future, there is no good news for wheat growers: in May, rains will be scarce in almost the entire national area, leading to a conspiracy to impose moisture access to the crop. Leonardo de Benedict formulates this forecast, which is negative for farmers in Cordoba and Santa Fe, but positive for field owners in Bolivar, Carlos Casares, Henderson and other districts who are experiencing flooding. Records for June and July will be low in volume, according to the seasonal pattern, although losses due to evaporation are reduced at this time of year.

Later, in the spring of Benedict, he categorically rules out the occurrence of the Nino event and observes the equal opportunities of La Niña or Neutral, although so far this dispute has not been resolved. The temperature of the equatorial Pacific is still cold and there is a possibility that it will approach normal values, but without achieving the records that cause the Nino event.

Late frosts

In turn, Temperature, which will be the framework of the agricultural campaign, creates risks. It happens that the years of Nina’s event – if she eventually wins – produce frosts later, which is especially damaging in a dry environment. In the years of this phenomenon there is also greater variability and thermal amplitude.

In the future, the first step for wheat growers should be to review the existing water and water level levels in the lots that will be used for cultivation.

The second step will be to observe new predictions about the likely evolution of key climate variables. With this data, it is possible to approach the solution, to indicate models with high technological level and high doses of expensive fertilizers, or to focus on models with lower costs, more conservative, which can get a profitable harvest in the constraint scenario. .

Despite the increase in selling prices of wheat, the yield of indifference to covering costs is very high, especially in hired fields, due to the violent increase in input prices.