China’s interest in fully accessing corn from Brazil has added to the list of consequences of the Ukraine war for the agricultural market, a country that ranks second among the world’s largest suppliers of grain under normal crop conditions. The only possibility is that this interest will lead to purchases in the short termTo obtain new suppliers in the face of Chinese demand to compensate for the lack of Ukrainian supply; Contributed to the reduction in crude grain prices on the Chicago Board of TradeWhere operators expressed concern about the competition now emerging from U.S. exporters who hoped to be able to take advantage of higher sales due to the situation caused by the armed conflict in the Black Sea area.

At the end of the session, the councils reflected $ 5.71 and $ 5.41 loss on the July and September corn positions, with adjustments of $ 303.82 and $ 291.72 per tonne.

While the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has yet to take an official step to confirm the progress made by technicians from both countries, Today, the General Administration of Customs of China and the Ministry of Agriculture of Brazil announced the signing of a protocol that resolves disputes over sanitary issues that restrict the trade of Brazilian corn and open its doors to trade without restrictions.

“We are opening the door wide to China, the world’s largest importer of corn,” Valmir Brandalize, a market analyst at Brandalizze Consulting, told Noticias Agrícolas, a Brazilian publication, adding that there was “optimism” about the possibility of adding Chinese. Demand in the Brazilian market.

In a dialogue with LA NACION, Daniel Siqueira, a market analyst at consulting firm AgRural, said that corn exports from Brazil to China have always been very small, with the largest volumes in 2015 and 2016, at 146,900 and 172,500 tonnes, respectively. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Trade, in 2020 the stock market was only 23,000 tons and in 2021 there was no deal. “The corn trade between the two countries was not banned, but there were sanitary restrictions that have been negotiated since 2014. There was a new round of consultations in 2019 and now it looks like an agreement has finally been reached, though more details are yet to be clarified. “, Explained from Curitiba, in the state of Paranას.

According to the specialist, all barriers have been removed. “Whoever pays the most will take corn from Brazil. If China buys large volumes, there will be more disputes between the domestic market and exporters, which will lead to better prices for the Brazilian manufacturer. In a year of normal production, Brazil has the potential to export 40 million tonnes without harming domestic consumption, which is high (ranging from 75 to 77 million tonnes).

He added that with the high-volume export scenario to China, We will probably see a decrease in Brazil’s exports to other countries, but not necessarily a decrease in grain for domestic demand, which remains due to the strong meat sector, which is very important in Brazil, but also due to recent growth. “Production of ethanol based on corn,” said Sikeira.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that China ranked first among world corn importers in the 2020/2021 campaign, when its purchases increased from 7.58 to 29.51 million tonnes due to declining stocks. . In the current cycle 2021/2022 its demand is forecast at 23 million, while the forecast for the agricultural season 2022/2023 falls to 18 million tons.

Argentina, which is regularly the third largest exporter of corn in the world, does not include China in its main destinations. In an official report on exported grain, in 2019, the nation’s Ministry of Agriculture revealed Argentine sales to China at 224,956 tonnes; At 44,499 tons in 2020 and 70,046 tons in 2021.

For the U.S. corn market today, good progress in planting in the U.S. Midwest last week also had a bearish effect. In this regard, yesterday the USDA revealed the progress of the work compared to 72% of the planned area, 49% in the previous week, 89% in 2021 and 79% in the average of the four previous campaigns. On average, the private sector speculated in advance on 68% of the area.

Local market

External growth in the Argentine market had a limited correlation. დReally, Matba Rofex slates reflected $ 2.90 and $ 2.50 increases in July and September positions, with adjustments of $ 266 and $ 268.50 per ton, respectively.

With an immediate supply of tonnes of corn, exporters today improved their bids from $ 270 to $ 272 for the Greater Rosario region.; $ 283 to $ 285 in Bahia Blanca and $ 280 to $ 285 in Nekochea Port.

In the Export Procurement Report, for the 18th year of this year, the National Ministry of Agriculture revealed the corn business for 20.21 million tonnes in 2021/2022, of which 6.34 million were supplied under the “straightening” model, which is without a solid price. As for the registration of evidence of sales abroad, the agency itself approved 27 million tonnes of export demand, compared to the 35 million tonnes that Agriculture had planned as export volumes in its latest monthly agricultural assessment report throughout the campaign.