Falling GDP and rising inflation: Istat data does not reassure Italy

War and inflation, GDP is getting smaller and smaller. Istat publishes the outlook for the Italian economy and updates growth for 2022, lowering it to 2.8% and resizing it to 1.9% in 2023. Inflation will slow down, but not immediately. The war hits and hits hard. Inflation, debt costs, rising energy all have a devastating impact on Italy’s GDP, which has been reduced several times over in just a few months. Now Istat, in disclosing the growth prospects of the Italian economy, has written a new page. It starts from two assumptions: GDP growth margins are still decreasing, but not stopping, while inflation will remain high in 2022 driven by energy goods. In via Cesare Balbo, Italian GDP is expected to continue growing both in 2022 (+ 2.8%) and in 2023 (+ 1.9%), although at a deceleration compared to 2021. And to think that the government, in last economics and finance document, had outlined a growth for 2022 equal to 3.1%. Obviously the calculations will have to be redone.

Returning to Istat, in the two-year forecast, the increase in GDP will be mainly determined by the contribution of net domestic demand for inventories, while net external demand will make a negative contribution in 2022 (-0.4%), which will follow without a contribution in 2023. “The outlook for the coming months is characterized by high downside risks, such as further increases in the price system, a decrease in international trade and an increase in interest rates. The expectations of families and companies could also suffer a significant deterioration”, explained the Institute led by Gian Carlo Blangiardo, also referring to the increase in the cost of debt, with the increase in public bond yields, as well as at the end of the year. the ECB’s ultra-expansionary monetary policy. On the investment front, which rhymes with Pnrr, “they will ensure decisive support for growth with a more sustained intensity this year (+8.8%) than in 2023 (+4.2%). Consumption by resident households will show a more contained improvement (+2.3% and +1.6%) while in 2023 the ratio between investments and GDP will reach 21.6% ».

The big bogeyman remains, that inflation that devours everything, starting with wages. For Istat there will be some mitigation, but not immediately. “The growth in energy prices pushes the inflationary rush that is expected to reach 5.8% in the year, while in 2023 the effects are expected to subside and the high cost of living is expected to decelerate to +2.6%”. According to economists, the outlook should be supported by a easing of pressures on commodity prices. Do you need to worry? According to Moreno Zani, president of Tendercapital, one of the most active independent international players in the asset management sector, yes. “The published data show a downside risk for the coming months due to a probable further rise in prices and a decrease in international trade in a context of rising interest rates. This has negative repercussions for families and businesses.”

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Source: Iltempo