Lazio Region: alliances, congress and candidate. The Democratic Party is playing the future

A match within a match. The regional elections in Lazio – much more than those in Lombardy – are part of the parliamentary debate of the Democratic Party and are destined, whatever the outcome, to mark a first point of no return. In the Region, Democrats have ruled for ten years with Nicola Zingaretti who, once elected to the House, will resign in a few weeks and will not be reappointed. For two years, the M5S has also entered the center-left majority, which in Pisana governs with the Pd, the civic left, Demos and the councilors of the Third Pole of Renzi and Calenda. A broad field that has worked until now, but has in fact been shaken by the end of the Draghi government.

The choice of candidate to succeed Zingaretti thus becomes a national issue. With what alliance will the Democratic Party present itself in regional elections, in which the center-right after the success of policies is exaggerated? The issue is inevitably linked to congress. The governor of Emilia Romagna Stefano Bonaccini and the mayor of Florence Dario Nardella went out into the open, ready to present a motion aimed at the alliance with the third pole. It is more likely Bonaccini, supported by former Renzians from the reformist base, than Nardella, the candidate for secretary.

On the other hand, there is the minister Andrea Orlando – supported by the left and by Francesco Boccia – who points to the progressive alliance with Giuseppe Conte’s M5S. The mayor of Pesaro Matteo Ricci and the vice president of Emilia Romagna Elly Schlein can also be part of the congress match. The Democratic Party’s future depends on who wins congress, with Dario Franceschini and AreaDem looking more towards Bonaccini than Orlando.

The Nazarene must choose: Conte or Calenda and Renzi. Keeping the two together is impossible. Liberal Democrats don’t want to know about M5S. And vice versa. Each choice involves risks, with the high probability that between now and the 2024 European elections the 5 Stars and Third Pole will grow by removing votes from the Democratic Party. So many votes. The Dem crisis is political, but above all social. Conte talks to progressives and addresses issues such as work and the environment. The Third Pole represents the liberal recipe for those who are neither on the right nor on the left.

And who is the Democratic Party talking to? What is the role of social democrats in the future of Italian politics? These are the questions that democratic leadership must answer. Names inevitably come later. But the names were spoken for months for the Lazio region. Vice President Daniele Leodori and Health Counselor Alessio D’Amato have been candidates for some time. Calenda has long christened the latter, but if the Third Pole went alone as political opportunity suggests: the opportunity to empty the Democratic Party is too tempting – the candidate could be Renziano Luciano Nobili, even if Calenda leans towards D’Beloved that would violate the dem Roman electorate.

The Action leader doesn’t even care about Leodori. The Vice President of the Region is strong according to M5S advisers Roberta Lombardi and Valentina Corrado, but Conte will never shut him down, also because the Roman and Lazio pentastellates have long distanced themselves from Lombardi and Virginia Raggi and advise leading politicians to go it alone .

For the same reasons as the Third Pole: launching an OPA on Democratic Party voters, which would risk a disaster in the regional elections. Also, Leodori is from AreaDem, the Franceschini chain that looks to Bonaccini. With Letta still secretary, the residue of the Draghi government’s fall was never discarded and Lazio’s vice president in Camp Conte would be forced to go it alone. If the Democratic Party went it alone, it would do so with an alliance that would range from red-green to a moderately inspired civic list.

Leodori remains on the right path as a presidential candidate, but in recent weeks post-election fibrillations have brought up other possible candidates among the disappointed defeated in single-member electorates. A name above all: Monica Cirinnà. The discontent of non-re-elected former parliamentarians exploded, as did the rust over the Ruberti case that broke out in August and the composition of the lists. But Nazareno could also focus on a national profile like Marianna Madia. Or – much more remote hypothesis – D’Amato himself. In essence, Enrico Gasbarra’s hypothesis is clear, but only if there was a unitary or emergency framework.

In the Pd of Rome and Lazio, there are those who point out the bad electoral result not so much and not only in the capital, but more in the interior and in the provinces, with the secretary of Lacio Bruno Astorre criticized by the reformist base, but also by Damanciniani and gypsies. In the Pd there is no shortage of those who look at Orlando’s motion and point to an agreement with Conte in Lazio.

Claudio Mancini, Mayor Roberto Gualtieri, Goffredo Bettini are part of this group. With Zingaretti – the first proponent of the broad field, also because his relations with the political leader of M5S have cooled since the former secretary said, after the government crisis, that Conte does not represent a reference for progressives. Even the Roma team, with the president close to resigning and now in Montecitorio (where he will not be elected vice president of the Chamber), seems anything but cohesive.

To open a deal, Conte would consider a third party, a non-partisan civic. A profile like Federico Cafiero De Raho. But would Letta and the national Democratic leaders accept that? And would the Nazareno have strength, with the congress scheduled for the spring, that is, after the regional vote? With the 5-Star deal far away, the impression is that the Democratic Party is looking for the most honorable way to manage a likely defeat and salvage what can be salvaged. Both outgoing parliamentarians and many former non-re-elected parliamentarians aim to be elected to the Regional Council. Otherwise, Gualtieri would be forced to run an employment office instead of the Capitol. And a joint remodeling would not be enough.

Source: IL Tempo