How much will the Qatargate scandal weigh on the Democratic Party? To answer the question are the two researchers Renato Mannheimer and Antonio Noto. “The Qatargate scandal will cost the Democratic Party dearly for several reasons. First, because the Democratic Party, like much of the left, built its identity on the moral idea of anthropological superiority. Taking an average of the latest polls, the Democratic Party today is between 14 and 15%”, says Mannheimer, who then explains how “Qatargate shows that elements of corruption can exist in all parties. Thus, it overturns a certain image from the left. Meanwhile, in a party torn apart by crises and internal conflicts, there seems to be no reaction and the scandal is treated as if it involved individuals. There is therefore a structural problem, Enrico Letta pulled by the chains does not have the strength to react. There are two elements that trigger the crisis of the Democratic Party that someone claims is at risk of falling to 10%, but making these predictions – still sentences the investigator – is very little serious”.
Noto unleashes the corruption scandal of the dem’s negative numbers: “The crisis of the Democratic Party cannot be attributed to the Qatar scandal. The Democratic Party had already been in crisis before, in last September’s elections it obtained 19 percent and in November it fell to 17 percent. Now, after the scandal, it oscillates around 16%, so it lost 1%. This means that Qatargate had a limited but marginal impact.”
Noto then draws a demarcation between the front of “disappointment” and that of “change of party”: “One thing does not imply the other. On the one hand, the Democratic Party’s motivational strength towards its electorate and its strength in aggregating new voters decreases, so much so that disillusionment with the dis-elected affects about 80% of its electorate. On the other hand, the departure of the party after Qatargate worries only 1% of its voters. In fact, disappointed voters do not change parties from one day to the next, it takes a long time”. Who got the 3% lost by Pd? Noto explains the flow like this: “2% went to 5 stars, 1% abstained. Looking ahead, there could be the same proportions, 2/3 of the votes that left the Democratic Party could go to the pentastellati. Now we need to understand how the investigation will proceed and whether new political subjects will be born. The new Pd secretary will have to figure out how to further motivate the disillusioned, because the risk is that disillusioned voters will recognize themselves in another party. This is the real problem today.”
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
