What happens to the Meloni government if the centre-right wins in both Lombardy and Lazio?

He teaches politics. Even after a great victory, a party, coalition or leader cannot be said to have reached the top and is breathing. Sooner or later we have to deal with a new and always different election assignment. After a renewed test of zeal, it will be possible to return to the scales at the alliance table, demanding more, depending on the votes received, or, on the contrary, you will have to admit that you are no longer what you used to be. “Indispensable” is one of the most used words by Silvio Berlusconi and Forza Italia in recent years, and it’s no coincidence.

Recent polls on regional elections in Lazio and Lombardy

Therefore, despite the renewed agreement in which the new government of Giorgia Meloni is formed, the exams for the centre-right parties are not over. It’s not about questioning everything. From a review of the internal balances of the grand alliance, yes. It will therefore be very important to follow the outcome of the next regional elections, in which the management of public affairs will be concerned in two regions: Lombardy and Lazio (also Friuli and Molise). They are crucial given the number of voters involved (a quarter of Italian citizens), the size of the two geographic regions, and the role they play: the ribcage of the country’s two hearts (political and economic).

Lazio and Lombardy on the right? could be

It gets interesting when you look at the latest polls on the elections of these two regions. The available data is that the centre-right is likely to take both Lazio and Lombardy. That would be far from obvious anyway, because in Lazio some right-wingers don’t have the weight to claim in the north. Forza Italia is in free fall, and the League, which is experiencing internal turmoil, always ranks third in the capital and surrounding areas. Not yet received in some regions. In short, the only party that got the vote is the Brothers of Italy. That’s why victory is not so easy. Above all, it is a centre-left, whose popularity has deployed current regional health councilor Alessio D’Amato, whose popularity stems from the massive work done in the healthcare industry to combat the Covid epidemic-related vaccination campaign.

But the real innovation would be that both victories were strongly driven by a single party, the Fdi, rather than the support of the centre-right in Lazio and Lombardy. If we look at the recent election polls, if we take into account that the Pd and M5s should split, Meloni’s party has no rivals in Lazio.

  • Brothers of Italy: 35.3%
  • League: 4.1
  • Strength Italy: 3.8%
  • CDX Citizenships: 1.7%
  • We are Moderate: 0.5%
  • Center Union: 0.5%
  • Democratic Party: 17.5%
  • Action – Italy Viva: 8.7%
  • Greens and Left: 2.7%
  • +Europe: 2.6%
  • CSX Civics: 2.5%
  • DemoS: 0.8%
  • PSI: 0.5%
  • 5 Star Movement: 13%
  • SI-Coord. 2050: 2%

Unpredictable things were going to happen in the Lombardy Region (not just politically) where Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini were born and raised. The region, where Forza Italia and Lega have always been important, chooses to change today and votes for the Rome-based party Fdi, which is also number one in Lombardy according to recent polls.

  • Brothers of Italy 23.50%
  • Alloy 12.90%
  • Forza Italia 6.60%
  • We Are Moderate-Renaissance Sgarbi 2.10%
  • Civil list Fontana President 2.10%
  • Democratic Party 19.80%
  • 5 Star Movement 9.20%
  • Greens-Left 5.90%
  • List of municipalities Majorino President 2.50%
  • Share / Italia Viva / Third Pole 9.10%
  • Civilian list Moratti President 4.50%
  • Popular Unity 1.80%

So behind the centre-right, we can see the shadow of the real winner: the Brothers of Italy party. Such a scenario would have significant repercussions at both the central and local government level. In fact, since the beginning of this legislature, Prime Minister Meloni has been busy talking to everyone on a daily basis. In Italy, the prime minister is not a figure of action, but a mediator. He needs to talk to leaders of allied parties, heads of parliamentary groups, ministers and party secretaries. Above all, it must keep the leaders of the allied parties at bay, hence Berlusconi and Salvini, who want to have a say in every step of the government and put their weight on the electoral needs. Therefore, every minimal act of executive must be translated into electoral consensus for all.

That’s why spirits rise whenever we witness a parliamentary group leap forward. Just as the Brethren of Italy disliked Calderoli’s impetuous move towards autonomy as soon as the new year entered, or, on the contrary, angered the Union’s change in the Milleproroghe regarding the seaside resorts offered by the Melonians. A flag too expensive to let all the credit go to the allies, even for Carroccio, but that was the case.
After all, in the past, Berlusconi and Salvini did everything to trip Giorgia Meloni to take first place in her marathon, but the gap created between them in terms of consensus eliminated all possibilities for the former Knight and current Minister of Infrastructure. Now the duo needs to stay one step behind Meloni.

Salvini in the midst of boiling points within the League and his position in government

Matteo Salvini, who had to give up the Ministry of Interior in particular, now plays at two tables. One is the external consensus: Italians who voted for the Lega will have to do everything to increase their share. The other is represented by internal fibrillation, with the northern branch seeking to close the Captain’s era and threatening division. To prevent this, Salvini needs to regain his share of the agreement, but at the same time show that he has not forgotten the demands of the north. It will do everything to give regional autonomy to the regions.

Matteo Salvini on the unfinished bridge in Mantua

Meanwhile, the minister cannot neglect to be a minister and makes it known that he is every day at an event, at a conference, with someone in his office in Palazzo Chigi to evaluate projects, or at any of the many open sites. country. First of all, there is the bridge over the Strait of Messina, which for him became the first item of the ministry’s agenda.

Conflict between immigrants, NGO and Meloni government erupts again: What’s going on?

And then the drums of the social networks he’d always battled with on the most controversial issues began again: immigrants and security. The last conflict with the Brothers of Italy took place in the first. The spy belli are the League’s amendments to Minister Matteo Piantedosi’s NGO decree that were blocked as “unacceptable” by two commission heads, one from Forza Italia and the other from the FdI.

Come on Italy is like a broken record

Forza Italia, on the other hand, has spent the last few years adhering to the concept that without Silvio Berlusconi there would be no centre-right in Italy, clearly no right. As early as March 2019, regarding his return to politics as a candidate for the European elections, Berlusconi himself said:

Silvio Berlusconi said in March 2019, “As 25 years ago, we are still indispensable in Forza Italia, we are the only perpetrators of the Christian tradition, liberal culture, supporters of the free market, guarantors of the labor enterprise.”

He also said this because he was worried about possible separation from the party. Since then, Berlusconi has lost quite a few believers. On August 24, speaking of alliances, the blue leader took on the role of the only liberal party in Italy, underscoring once again the distances with the Lega and Fratelli d’Italia: “We are actually allies, but we started differently. Each with different stories and different political cultures. If we had the same view on the issue, we would have been the only party.” Last October, after the diplomatic incident between Berlusconi and Meloni on the occasion of La Russa’s election as Senate president, it was the newly elected president of Palazzo Madama Licia Ronzulli that fueled the fire. No problem,” said Ronzulli, and felt the need to remind him, “We are essential for the government.” Alessandro Battilocchio, a member of Forza Italia, just a few days ago, on the occasion of the general discussion on Dl Ukraine, which expanded its authority to transport weapons to Kiev, said: “We are determined to support Ukraine. and without its independence a just peace cannot be achieved because that would mean the surrender of Kiev”. He doesn’t think they can do without it, because otherwise the fate of Ukraine is also at stake.

Berlusconi was so convinced of this that in the first days of January he even tried to revive one of his old passions, the great Italian popular party. Murato of Giorgia Meloni: “Italy already has a big conservative party, a party that consistently gives over 30 percent in all polls and aims to reach 35-36 percent in the European elections. It’s called Fratelli d’ Italy” replied the Prime Minister.

If Meloni conquers Lazio and Lombardy

In short, after years of falling into the traps of the allies, Meloni has managed to present itself to the electorate (and also to President Sergio Mattarella) as the party that represents the country more than any other. The consent of the Italians gave him the power to impose himself in the elections to form the Government. And now, if he were to also conquer Lazio and Lombardy, the first thing that would happen in the Roman palaces would be further imbalances of power within the centre-right coalition that would open up endless steppes in favor of the Brothers of Italy. above. Not only because the allies are in trouble, but also because outside leftists are fighting for the sick democrat.

Thus, if the FdI takes over both main regions, it can start to establish itself almost everywhere with its candidates in the next elections. Moreover, the government is increasingly protected from possible internal fibrillations in the majority. Disrupting the balance also requires strength and not enough to shake the specter of insecurity. If Berlusconi and Salvini think they can stand up to being “indispensable”, there seems to be no fear of losing a majority around della Scrofa. The words of Minister of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty Francesco Lollobrigida at the start of his term are symbolic: “We are never interested in managing to govern, we want to involve the best energies inside and outside politics. If these conditions exist, it’s ok. Otherwise we won’t even try. And we get back to the voters, this At this point we propose a different coalition from the current coalition, but as far as the FdI is concerned, we’re starting again based on the consensus we have. But I don’t think that will happen”.

Twitter post reboots Fdi numbers ok

It’s like saying “we’re ready for the compromise” if someone thinks to scare us with the specter of elections. Therefore, the consensus that has locked the Brothers of Italy at the helm is that the regional match will be able to definitively crown Giorgia Meloni as the leader of the centre-right. The latest Ipsos polls on party consensus in Italy give the FdI more than twenty points from its allies.

  • Brothers of Italy: 30.5%
  • League: 8.3%
  • Strength Italy: 6.8%
  • 5 Star Movement 18%
  • Democratic Party: 16.4%

A blow for Salvini and Berlusconi. It is better to manage and do well, apart from prior lessons. They have five years to catch up or risk extinction.

Source: Today IT