Sixteen days after the polls opened for Lazio’s regional elections, the centre-right candidate, Francesco Rocca, would be just over nine points ahead of his most credible opponent, outgoing health councilor Alessio D’Amato. The man chosen by Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi, therefore, would go on to become the next governor of Lazio, with only one unknown in his path: the percentage of undecided/abstainers, which currently represents about a third of the electoral sample.
This is the most important data that emerges from the survey that Euromedia Research carried out exclusively for «Il Tempo», interviewing a significant sample of citizens of Lazio between 20 and 23 January last. Rocca, quoted at 44.7%, would have a very reassuring advantage over D’Amato (35.5%), who paid dearly for his lack of alliance with the M5S, which also supported the Zingaretti council, which includes the councilor for health . The candidate chosen by Giuseppe Conte, Donatella Bianchi, would in fact have 18% of the preferences.
M5S / PD, THE SUM (NOT) MAKES THE TOTAL
But, as is often the case in politics, calculating the arithmetic sum of the consensus of Rocca’s two main opponents would be misleading. Because the separate race of D’Amato and Bianchi allowed both of them to fill in their respective constituencies. Which would not have happened with an alliance. In that case, presumably, a “red and yellow” coalition would have paid the price both in the “centre”, with the probable separation of the “terzopolisti” of Calenda de Renzi, and in the left. It is no coincidence that the three “minor” candidates for governor, according to the Euromedia Research survey, would only have crumbs left: 1% for Rosa Rinaldi of the Unione Popolare, 0.5% for Fabrizio Pignalberi of the “Quarto polo”, 0.3 % for Sonia Pecorilli from PCI.
THE CENTER-RIGHT AND THE BENEFITS OF COMPACTITY
Different speech for Rocca, who benefits precisely from the lack of divisions of the center-right front. If five years ago Stefano Parisi paid off the competing candidacies of Sergio Pirozzi (who took almost 5%) and Mauro Antonini from CasaPound (1.9%), this time the entire coalition lined up solidly, confirming a consistent advantage that it also has at national level .
Interesting data is being recorded in front of the party. The favorite of respondents is Fratelli d’Italia, quoted at 30.2%, almost four times the result of five years ago – when the melonians collected 8.69% – although slightly below the recent Politics, when in Lazio the FdI reached 31.2. The Democratic Party continues with 18.5%, a drop both in relation to the last Regionals (21.2) and the 2022 Policies (19.3). In third place are Five Stars with 15.7% (22.06% in 2018 Regionals, 14.9% in 2022 Policies).
HALF FLOP TO THIRD POLE?
Then there is the “big group” of others. Starting with Azione/Italia viva, which stop at 7.4%, below the 8.35 collected a few months ago in Politics and, above all, a far cry from the exploits of Carlo Calenda in the race for the Capitol. And again Lega (7.1) and Forza Italia (6.9) almost matched, and all the others gradually.
From the point of view of the coalitions, the center-right is close to the absolute majority with 47.5% of the votes, about three points more than candidate Rocca. Alessio D’Amato, who has about two-and-a-half points ahead of the center-left coalition’s 33.1%, would benefit from split voting in the race. Donatella Bianchi also leads slightly more than her own lists, whose coalition (M5S + civic) stops at 17.7%.
In any case, candidates for governor represent only one voter in 4 (24.4%) the decisive factor in choosing the vote. 42.9% of respondents allow themselves to be influenced by the reference coalition, 13% express themselves based on national policy. And yet it is the trend of national politics that also influences the electorate’s expectations of final victory. 48.2% of the sample interviewed believe that the centre-right candidate Francesco Rocca will prevail, 32.3% do not know/do not answer, only 13.6% believe in a statement by Alessio D’Amato, even fewer (4, 9%) believe that Donatella Bianchi will become governor.
LEFT CHALLENGE
Data on voter “expectations” is interesting for several reasons. Faced with a center-right electorate who are very convinced of their candidate Rocca’s assertion, there is a left-wing population that is disheartened. Less than half of Pd voters (46.4%) believe in D’Amato’s victory, a percentage that drops even further among supporters of Action/Italia viva (43.5%). The “sentiment” of Grillini voters is also significant. Indeed, among those who will vote for Bianchi, the relative majority (35.5%) bet on Rocca’s victory, more than those who believe in the affirmation of the same candidate chosen by Conte (32.5%) while only 5, 4% believe D’Amato will become governor. A figure that essentially means two things: firstly, the awareness of how a split between the Democratic Party and 5 Stars would have opened the way for the center-right, secondly, the lack of appeal to the Grillino people of the leader chosen by the Dem and Third Pole.
SE NOTORIE IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD
D’Amato’s lack of “attractiveness” also emerges from another survey, the one about the popularity and trust he has received. Well, D’Amato is indeed the most well-known candidate of all, boasting 84.4% awareness to Rocca’s 77.8 and Bianchi’s 64.6. An inevitable situation given the overexposure of the councilor since the Covid emergency exploded. However, the head of Health at Giunta Zingaretti is also the least trusted by voters who know him: 43.4% against 54.9 for Francesco Rocca and 45 for Donatella Bianchi. A sign that a given overexposure does not always necessarily lead to greater consensus.
THE REVENGE OF THE GOVERNORS
The last focus created by Euromedia Research for «Il Tempo» concerns the value attributed by voters to these regional elections. In short, a reassuring number when compared with the increase in abstention in recent electoral disputes. In fact, 71.8% of those interviewed consider it very (29.6%) or quite (42.2%) essential to vote to elect the President of the Region, while only 22.4% consider it not very important (15. 2 %) or nothing (7.2%) fundamental. An interest in this electoral round presumably attributable to the pandemic period, which highlighted the role of governors in some dossiers, mainly the health one.
HUNT FOR THE UNDECIDED
The importance of the regional vote obviously decreases among undecided/abstainers: more than half of respondents “snub” it (50.4%) while only 33.6% consider it essential. But it is precisely this last slice of the electorate that the candidates currently at a disadvantage must try to “seduce” if they want to subvert a result that today is showing itself to be quite marked. Two complete weeks of the electoral campaign are available, those in which, by the way, the publication of new polls will be prohibited. A final race in which, as always, there will be attacks and low blows.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
