After the regional elections in Lazio and Lombardy, politics is back on the rollercoaster of polls and projections. Analyzing the vote that decreed the election of the center-right candidates Francesco Rocca and Attilio Fontana, researcher Alessandro Amadori proposes an elaboration that projects local data, with due care, to the national level. With sensational results.
Regional elections have a profound political meaning, it is obvious, but starting from local data to hypothesize a possible national result is a bit risky, admits the researcher. Processing, however, like all case limits, offers a consent bias. But what are the results? “Based on the 2023 regional vote, today the Brothers of Italy would confirm the 26% obtained in September 2022. The League, on the other hand, would go from 9% of policies to around 12%. Forza Italia would register a slight consolidation, from 8% to 8.4%. The centre-right as a whole would be (growing) at 46.4%”, explains the Affaritaliani researcher. On the other political front, “even the Democratic Party would strengthen, going from 19% to 21%. The Left and the Greens would remain stable between 3% and 4%, while there would be a weakening of +Europa. center-left would obtain around 26% of the votes, confirming its macro-niche”.
Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement, on the other hand, in the projection sees a drop in consensus from 15.4% to 9%. But the grillini pay attention to themselves: “the M5S is affected by sudden changes that pass from one electoral level to another, so this number must be viewed with extreme caution”. The “third pole” of Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda is in sharp decline, which would drop to 5%. In summary, the majority would see a greater balance while in the center-left the Democratic Party is once again the protagonist to the detriment of the 5 stars.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
