In Italy, there is an intermittent abstention that is triggered when a team is beaten by defeat at the start, as in these Lazio and Lombardy regionals. In general, then, elections are decided by the “non-placed” who are rewarding the center-right at this historic juncture. On the February 14 episode of DiTuesday, pollster Nando Pagnoncelli takes stock of Sunday and Monday voting. Is Italy right? “We must not confuse the electoral result of both the policies and the regional ones with the real numbers of the political components of the country”, explains the director of Ipsos.
“The centre-right clearly won the political elections with 43.9% of the valid votes and clearly won the elections in Lombardy and Lazio”, explains Pagnoncelli, “but if we look at the numbers of September 25th we have 12 million and 300 thousand voters who voted for the center-right forces, 14.2 million who voted for all other forces and 18 million voters who did not vote or voted for a white ballot or nothing,” says the pollster. “The numbers show that there is no right-wing majority”.
As a demonstration of the concept, there is a monthly survey on political self-positioning, that is, how voters define themselves.- The data are from the end of January: “33% of respondents do not recognize themselves in any alignment, 27% declare themselves left or center-left, another 27% center-right and 9% center”, comments Pagnoncelli. “This means that the electoral result is often driven by the vote of the so-called non-placed, who, depending on the circumstances and the political climate, tend to vote for candidates and parties” from one camp or another.
Maestro Giovanni Floris then asks: “But in these regionals are the abstentionists more from the right or the left?”. For the researcher, the data are clear: “Abstention is intermittent, in this case it comes mostly from the center-left. Just think that the center-left voters convinced of victory in Lombardy and Lazio were a very narrow minority. If voters are sure of defeat, they have little motivation “to go to the polls, concludes Pagnoncelli.
Source: IL Tempo
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
