The primaries are good for the Democratic Party. Not only because it puts him back at the center of the media story and has managed to get most of his voters involved, but also because the consensus – the polls at hand – has grown. In fact, according to YouTrend’s analysis, the Democratic national secretariat primaries last Sunday, with Elly Schlein’s victory, “scrambled the waters” of the party consensus that has been somewhat stagnant lately.
The Democratic Party has certainly gained support in recent weeks. On Supermedia, Youtrend’s PD has jumped almost one-half point in the last 14 days alone, allowing it to (re)beat the 5 Stars Movement for second place across the charts. The Pentastellati are losing ground significantly (0.8 percent) and are thus the main “victims” of this newfound vitality of the Democrats.
Other than this “shock”, the overall balance was not markedly changed, with Fratelli d’Italia slightly strengthening (+0.2%) to 30.4%. It will also be interesting to follow the dynamics of the Third Pole consensus in the coming weeks: To date, the federation between Action and Italia Viva has dropped a bit, about 7%, and now finds itself threatened by Forza Italia. But for many, Schlein’s victory could also open up new growth areas for Renzi and Calenda’s creature. On the occasion of similar events, we must first ask ourselves whether we are dealing with active growth or a perception ‘contaminated’ by contingent, unstructured suggestions. The first clue comes from an analysis of data from individual survey institutes (and there are many) that have tried to measure party consensus in recent weeks.
For example, Noto per Porta a Porta’s “sensational” poll predicts a net +3% for the Democratic Party before and after the primaries. But without going that far, other pollsters also recorded growth for Democrats last month: +2.2% for SWG, +1.7% for Tecnè, about a point for EMG; Growth recorded by Euromedia, Ipsos and Ixè was slightly lower; but what matters in the final analysis is the unanimity that the various institutes are growing. Second, the analysis of historical precedents tells us that the PD has always seen support after the primary elections, sometimes more than confirmed by the data from the polls on the occasion of the next national elections (as in the 2019 European elections, a few months after the elections). Zingaretti’s victory in the primaries).
Source: Today IT
Emma Fitzgerald is an accomplished political journalist and author at The Nation View. With a background in political science and international relations, she has a deep understanding of the political landscape and the forces that shape it.
