Analysis Does the third pole disposable gap exist in Central Italy? Lorenzo Pregliasco, professor and director of YouTrend, responds to a political dilemma in Today. Meeting

Third Pole, Central Pole, Middle Pole, Grand Centre. They called it, in the most different ways, the Action of Action and Italia Viva project started by Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi. Above all it was born for comfort and was broken at the first difficulty. But there was a political goal: to stop the moderate and liberal voters at a historical moment when the left and right were polarized. In the political elections, the federation received 7.8% of the vote, while in the last regional elections it got 4.9% in Lazio and 4.3% in Lombardy.

“For example, in politics, there is a constituency representing a vote that looks at the so-called Third Pole experiment and rejects the right-left dichotomy. After that, the political space depends on the leaders’ ability. To occupy that space. If there is no credible political proposal or we get lost in internal conflicts, the voters will go elsewhere. It’s not about the voters because it’s central. They trust a project as long as it meets certain needs”. Lorenzo Pregliasco, professor in the Department of Political and Social Sciences at the University of Bologna and director of the web magazine YouTrend, explains this directly to Today.

Therefore, there would not be a voter who chose the center or death because of his value or political culture. Especially at a historical moment like this when voting is more chaotic. Therefore, if there was an authoritative and credible political project, an alternative to both the right and the left, he could ask for more. “My impression is,” continues Pregliasco, that at this stage we are moving towards bipolarization, a center-left versus centre-right schema. There is room for the third and fourth poles. In light of this, a centrist project will struggle to earn more than previous policies or what Mario Monti received in 2013″.

In 2013 Monti reached about 10%, while the Third Pole, favored by a certain media visibility and a weak Pd in ​​recent policies, did not reach 8%. In short, it was Mario Monti who reached record numbers. The expert says, “Even if it is 10 percent, it will not be decisive in the Parliament. That is, if there is a political structure with a majority, independent of you, that 10 percent has the right.”

What’s going on with Forza Italia?

In fact, in these early months of Giorgia Meloni’s government, the third post touched the ball several times. It is difficult to maintain the tunic of the moderates: not only does it run the risk of being underweight when it enters the classrooms, it also does not even have such a well-established electorate abroad, in the country. The evidence comes from the identity of the Pole Third voter. “A predominantly urban voter residing in cities and big cities – continues Pregliasco, and votes from the center, residential areas, middle class and wealthy areas are clearly common in the big cities. It’s a simplification because inside there’s a little bit of everything but the professional classes, the average educated. and does it represent middle-to-high professional level people?90’s, he used to vote for the center right and has recently come close to the Democratic Party with Renzi.Even in the regional ones, we see how much the third pole consensus is in the ZTL where the Democratic Party is It is losing the primacy it has had in recent years. It is precisely because a certain segment of the middle or upper middle class prefers the third pole to the Democratic Party. But these are assessments of the past, who knows what will happen in the future”.

Forza Italia is at risk of collapsing in the future, and some believe this could go and inflate the center’s ranks. “No, I think a right-facing voter is looking not only at Meloni more than Schlein, but also at Meloni more than Calenda. I’m skeptical about Forza Italia’s vision compared to the reformist, progressive voters. To Lega and Fdi. Maybe He views Renzi with less distaste, but still describes him as someone who leads the centre-left”.

In short, there is nothing that the Third Pole could exist except a new electoral law. “It exists in order to exist, but it is necessary to be aware of the existing space. The only party M5s that have torn apart the system in recent years. Yes, there was a huge space created there, but it doesn’t seem like that. Third Pole may aspire to it. A lot changes with a proportional election law because its government you would need that 6, 7 or 8 % to install it. The scenario there would be very different”. Can they proportionally exceed 10? “Hard to say, but the percentages may outweigh first of all because it’s harder for a coalition to have most of the seats,” Pregliasco said.

Who is behind Renzi and Calenda?

The political analyst leaves little room for the future of those who believe in the idea of ​​a single party at the centre. At best, there should be a proportional electoral system and hope for the weakness of the more moderate left and right parties. Only in this way could he hope to reach numbers that would not allow him to rule in any case. At best, moderates in Italy could upset the balance.

An X-ray of the political ancestry of the two leaders, Matteo Renzi and Carlo Calenda, also says a lot. The former minister of economic development in the Renzi and Gentiloni governments hails from the Democratic Party and leads a party made up of one-third of the former Pd, one-third of former Forza Italia and one-third of political recruits. Those who take action have a clear profile: they are under 40, have at least a degree in their pocket, tend to come from the Democratic Party, and are rooted in northern cities. A group that basically embraces the Draghi agenda but takes a very neutral approach to wages, civil rights and immigration issues. In short, they are not a complete representation of the base of a party that is wanted to take root.

Considering also the number of votes it has in domestic rivalry with the Calendians, it can be said that it is Italia Viva that has taken root in the region. But even there, it’s not exactly the majority of the country that influences Matteo Renzi. In fact, Renzi has always been backed by names from Bocconi University, such as Guido Tabellini, former Rector of Bocconi University, who approached Leopolda in 2014 after being pulled into the Berlusconi galaxy in 2008. Names like Diego Della Valle, owner of Tod. And then the Tuscan bankers; Vincenzo Manes, head of the Intek group and generous financier of the foundations where the mayor of Florence got into big politics. The names that played a big part in Renzi’s rise to the Democratic Party and then running the country; perhaps overshadowed by time, but still feel the pulse of the world from which the former Prime Minister came.

Therefore, it seems clear how difficult it would be for two personalities like Renzi and Calenda, who might not even be in the same car, to share a common project. First of all, because it is unlikely to influence politics at such a historical moment. The numbers and results say this, both inside the buildings and inside the ballot boxes. Maybe there is a possibility for liberals in Italy but today it is a fact, an acronym created at the table for two gentlemen to enter Parliament. No, as long as there are two parties, the Pd and Forza Italia, which, by their history and nature, still know how to talk to moderates in Italy.


Source: Today IT

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